MLB Betting Preview for Tuesday, April 9: 3 Best Bets and 2 Player Props
Holy Bullpen Meltdown, Batman! The Cubbies blew an 8-0 lead to burn one of our best bets last night, which was painful to say the least. Overall, the best bets went 1-2, but our late player prop add on Jose Berrios cashed to get us close to even for the evening.
I feel really good about the Tuesday card, which is packed with 3 best bets and 2 player props. Remember to have fun and bet responsibly! Good luck, sports betting family!
Pirates -115
How about some day baseball to start up our Tuesday? This starts at 12:35 PM Eastern, so get those bets in as soon as you can. I've been more than impressed with this Pittsburgh team so far.
The P'Rats are 8-2 on the young season and their lineup is packed with some exciting young talent. Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz both have 2 homers apiece, and Connor Joe leads the club with a .324 batting average. Pittsburgh is averaging 5.6 runs per 9 innings while Detroit is only averaging 3.1.
I'm not a big fan of Martin Perez but he's looked great during his first two starts this season. The left-hander has only given up 3 earned runs in 11 innings of work. Detroit will counter with Casey Mize, who looked okay in his first start against the Mets last week. That being said, I think the Pirates bats should get to Mize early on in this one. Lay the small number!
Blue Jays -110 (FanDuel)
It was obvious last night that the Jays were happy to finally be back in their home ballpark after a 10 day road trip to start 2024. Toronto's bats finally woke up a bit, as they scored 4 early runs and allowed Jose Berrios to cruise to an easy win. I expect the Jays to build on that positive momentum.
Meanwhile, the Seattle bats continue to be ice cold. The Mariners are hitting just .212 as a team and scoring just 2.9 runs per 9 against right-handed pitchers. I do give Seattle the edge in starting pitching with George Kirby on the hill.
Kirby has great command, but he was lit up for 8 runs (6 earned) against Cleveland in his last start. Look for Vladdy Jr., George Springer, and Bo Bichette to tee off against Kirby in this one.
Phillies -126 (FanDuel)
FanDuel is being awfully generous with this price, as the Phils are currently -135 at most US shops. I get that Sonny Gray is making his Cards debut in this one, and that's a huge boost for St. Louie. However, multiple reports say that Gray will be limited to only 65 pitches in this one.
Zack Wheeler is a beast, and anytime I can get him at a reasonable price I'm betting on him. The veteran righty has a K-rate of 31.3% through 2 starts and his walk rate is an insanely low 2.1%. Gray may have more experience but Wheeler has better overall stuff.
Philly's bullpen makes me nervous, but they did enough to slam the door shut on the Cards last night. Lay the moderate price with Wheeler and the Phils!
Merrill Kelly Over 5.5 Ks (-118) (FanDuel)
Have you figured out yet that you need to have an account with FanDuel to get good prices on MLB? Here's another case of them having the best price. Kelly's K prop juice on the Over is at -135 at DraftKings and -133 at BetMGM. This means we're getting an incredible deal at -118.
Kelly gets overshadowed a bit by Zac Gallen, but he's got great stuff and he knows how to pitch out of jams. Last season, Kelly's median K number was 6 and tonight he faces a Colorado squad that strikes out quite often. The Rockies have 4 players with K-rates above 29%.
Kelly faced the Rox back on March 29th and he racked up 8 strikeouts in that outing. He's fanned 36 Colorado hitters during his last 4 starts against them. Give me the Over!
Cal Quantrill Under 3.5 Ks (-145) (DraftKings)
Let's stay in the same game for our other player prop bet of the night. Quantrill is a ground ball pitcher, which should serve him well when pitching in the thin air of Coors Field. That being said, his K-rate of just 13.1% was one of the lowest in the league last season.
Quantrill struck out 3 hitters or less in 14 of his 19 starts in 2023. His median K number was 3 but I think this line should be 2.5 because of Arizona's low K-rate.
The D'Backs have 4 hitters that strikeout less than 17% of the time. This one is a little bit juicy, but I still like the Under! Let's get it!