MLB Betting Guide: 3 Best Bets and our Top Player Prop for Thursday, April 4
Well, well, well...the hits just keep on coming! We swept the board on Wednesday with a perfect 4-0 mark. That runs our yearly MLB record to 12-1 and we're chomping at the bit to tackle the Thursday card.
Just another quick PSA before we get started. Just because we're on a hot streak doesn't mean you should get careless with your bankroll. The MLB season is full of peaks and valleys, so stick to your process and don't raise your bet sizes. Now, let's dig into the Thursday board.
Tigers +110 (Caesars)
We fired on this one yesterday but Mother Nature had other ideas. Even after a good night's sleep, I still don't think the Mets should be favored in this spot. The Metamucils are averaging only 1.5 runs per 9 innings against right-handed pitchers.
Detroit starter Casey Mize hasn't pitched in the big leagues since 2022, but he looked fantastic during Spring Training. Yes I know that doesn't mean much, but he still went 3-1 with a 2.21 ERA through 20.1 innings of work.
The Mets will counter with Adrian Houser and he doesn't have electric stuff. The Tigers bats aren't off to the grandest of starts, but they've shown some timely hitting on their way to the 4-0 record. Guys like Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson should get Mize some run support early. Give the dog and a cup of coffee for this 12:10 PM Eastern start time.
Pirates -125 (DraftKings)
I know the P'Rats finally lost a game yesterday, but I'm not ready to jump off the bandwagon just yet. Pittsburgh's 5-1 start gives their long suffering fans some reasons for optimism this season. Martin Perez gets the ball for the Pirates today and he has a nice sinker to go along with an above-average cutter.
Josiah Gray is a decent starter for the Nats, but man, he got rocked in his Opening Day start against Cincy. The Reds lit Gray up for 7 earned runs, and it wouldn't surprise me to see this Pirates lineup do the same today.
Pittsburgh's bullpen has impressed the heck out of me so far. Pirates relievers have a combined ERA of just 1.67 this season. Washington's bullpen ERA is sitting at 5.49. Lay the moderate price with Pitt!
Cardinals -148 (FanDuel)
I may need my head examined for betting on fatboy Lance Lynn today, but I think the move back to St. Louis may rejuvenate him. The veteran righty pitched pretty well against the Dodgers in his first start before a rain delay got in the way.
In case you haven't noticed, this Marlins team is reeling in a big way. Miami is 0-7 and most of their hitters looked lost at the plate. Their bullpen also has plenty of issues, as they're giving up 7.12 runs per 9 innings so far this season.
This is the home opener for the Cards and I expect Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt to do some damage against Miami starter Ryan Weathers. Let's lay the wood with the birds!
Seth Lugo Over 5.5 Ks +110 (FanDuel)
With today's light slate of games, there weren't a lot of player props that piqued my interest. That being said, I'm quite fond of this Seth Lugo one I found. Feel free to lay the big juice for 4.5 but I'm rolling the dice with the plus money 5.5 at FanDuel.
Lugo isn't a prolific strikeout pitcher, but he gets a great matchup against the Chicago White Sox tonight. The South Siders have a K-rate of 28% so far this season, which is the 3rd highest in baseball. Guys like Paul DeJong, Luis Robert, and Yoan Moncada have been striking out a ton.
Lugo put up some decent numbers last season and I expect him to go at least 6 innings tonight. He went 12-5 to the Over last year when he pitched at least 6 innings. Good luck, sports betting family!