MLB Friday Betting Trends & Stat Insights for Yankees vs White Sox – Gerrit Cole vs Vince Velasquez, run lines
The Yankees are scheduled to start Gerrit Cole (2-0, 2.67 ERA) against Vince Velasquez (2-2, 3.97 ERA) on Friday. In Cole's last outing, the Yankees won 2-1 against the Rangers. He pitched 6.1 innings allowing 1 earned run with 5 hits. He also recorded 10 strikeouts with 1 walk. The last time Velasquez took the mound, he recorded a win as the White Sox defeated the Red Sox 4-2. He finished with 5 IP, 2 K, 2 BB, while allowing 1 earned run on 3 hits. Today, Cole projects for 5.80 innings pitched with 2.4 ER, 5.1 hits, 7.0 strikeouts, and 1.5 walks, according to THE BAT. Meanwhile, THE BAT projects Velasquez's average outcome to be 4.26 IP, 2.7 ER, 4.2 H, 4.1 strikeouts, and 2.2 walks.
Gerrit Cole's 96.9 mph fastball velocity this year is in the 98th percentile among starting pitchers.
DJ LeMahieu has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his fly balls (46.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest RF fences today.
White Sox Insights:
Vince Velasquez is an extreme fly ball pitcher (39.3% FB% according to THE BAT projections) and is stuck pitching in the #1 HR venue among all parks in this matchup.
Josh Harrison has been unlucky with his home runs since the start of last season; his 7.70 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is quite a bit lower than his 14.40 Expected HR/600 (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).
The Chicago White Sox have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to THE BAT X, and are likely to positively regress in the future
The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 27 games (+5.90 Units / 19% ROI)
The Chicago White Sox have hit the Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+6.65 Units / 54% ROI)
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