Garrity Handicaps the Sunday Cross Country Pick 5, featuring races from Aqueduct and Oaklawn Park

Garrity's first post is at 3:47 pm ET.
Racing at Aqueduct.
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The stakes lineup today is lousy – there aren’t many scheduled in the first place, and the ones on the docket, like the Grade 3 Santa Ynez at Santa Anita, are just awful – so we are taking a different tack this afternoon, and tackling the Cross Country Pick 5, which covers a quintet of races from Aqueduct in New York and Oaklawn Park in Arkansas. We found the sequence very playable, and more attractive than usual, as nobody hit it yesterday, which means that today’s pool gets enhanced with a $186,880 carryover. It’s a cold day in most of the country, but few things warm one up like being alive in a multi-race wager, so let’s go.

Aqueduct, Race 8, 3:47 pm ET

Allowance, 1 ⅛ miles, Dirt, 4 & Up

It’s going to be a wet, cold, miserable day at the Big A, and while that will be no fun for the poor slobs in the grandstand, a sloppy track, which we are expecting, makes both of the New York races in the Pick 5 sequence more enticing. In this allowance, we are very comfortable singling 1-I Am the Law, who has been good on wet tracks, especially in his last start, when his third-place finish was a lot better than it looks on paper, as he was wide on a track that favored the rail. Today he gets the rail, and that, plus his affinity for the slop, makes him an easy pick. 

Aqueduct, Race 9, 4:16 pm ET

$30,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 furlongs, Dirt, New York-bred Fillies & Mares 4 & Up

This field, as so many are in cheap maiden claiming races, is weak, but we are going to use that to our advantage, as most of the runners are simply too slow to win. We are going to single 8-Dream on Cara, who has been thoroughly outrun in her fourteen career starts, finishing off the board in eleven of them, but they were against far, far tougher company than she will face here. She also has a pedigree that makes us move her up in the slop, and moving her up even a little puts her well above the rest of this sad group.

Oaklawn Park, Race 7, 4:24 pm ET

$30,000 Claiming 1 1/16 miles, Dirt, 4 & Up

We expect a fast main track at Oaklawn, and in this middle race in the Pick 5 sequence, we are comfortable singling 6-Cosmo, who has been running in allowance company at Remington Park, but who has earned superior speed figures in his recent starts.

Oaklawn Park, Race 8, 4:52 pm ET

Allowance, 6 furlongs, Dirt, 4 & Up

This allowance sprint has an evenly matched group of ten older horses going to the gate. We are spreading, as 2-Easy Action, 5-Lark’s Mischief, and 7-Super Ocho all look like solid win contenders. We found it hard to give the nod to any one of them, so we will use them all.

Oaklawn Park, Race 9, 5:22 pm ET

Starter Allowance, 1 1/16 miles, Dirt, 4 & Up

There’s a full field of twelve entered for this starter allowance, but most of them look pretty slow, and we are confident including just two in our play: 5-Next Revolt, who has won his last two starts, and 8-Tiger Moon, who comes off a near miss in his last start. Next Revolt has speed, and will win if the pace is fast; Tiger Moon is a stretch-runner, and should win if the early fractions are a little bit too quick.

Here is the play: Cross Country Pick 5 – 1 with 8 with 6 with 2,5,7 with 5,8. That is 6 combinations, so at the 50-cent base wager level, it will cost a mere $3. We will play it for $10, for a total investment of $60.

That’s all for today. Until the next time, enjoy the races, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.

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