God's Tipster's Saturday Gulfstream Park Picks: 4 races – Tropical Park Oaks, Sugar Swirl, Tropical Park Derby
Friday’s Race Recap from Gulfstream:
(All odds US)
Race 2: 8th@ 6.80/1
Race 3: 5th@ 2.30/1
Race 7: 4th@ 13.90/1
In Race 2, Bear Bear was with the pace early and tired. In Race 3, Miles of Smiles never contended. In Race 7, Positive Review stalked and made a brief bid at the top of the stretch before flattening out.
Let’s get into our Saturday card! Fast and firm conditions are expected again at Gulfstream!
Race 2: Thornbury - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/1)
Two-year-old maidens go a mile and a sixteenth on turf to kick off our Saturday. Thornbury exits the same race as our 2-1 morning line favorite, Enlighten, who’s likelier to go off closer to 7/5 here, but I like the upside Thornbury has. Thornbury is a half to multiple turf graded stakes winner Tiz a Slam. In that debut effort, Thornbury was bumped and pinched at the start but aside from the troubled early fraction, his other internal fractions were just as fast as Enlighten’s were and he should be 4x the price. Value at 8/1 or higher.
Race 8: Breath Away - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 9/2)
The Tropical Park Oaks for three-year-old fillies on turf is an evenly matched affair. Many will side between Todd Pletcher’s runners and the few from the Chad Brown barn but I like Breath Away to spring a mild upset from the Christophe Clement barn. Breath Away was a winner first out on this very course. She won in her first stakes try here on turf making her one of three fillies in this field to have won twice on this course. From there she missed by 1/2 length at Pimlico on Preakness weekend before a rank trip at Belmont which resulted in a layoff. The Clement barn doesn’t typically ship their fillies to California but they thought enough of this one to take a stab at a stakes on the Breeders’ Cup weekend undercard where she finished third. She meets no killers here and has been working purposefully for this.
Race 9: Napa Candy - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/1)
The Grade 3 Sugar Swirl at 6 furlongs for fillies and mares came up a little short on star power and I think it’s ripe for an upset. Napa Candy ships in owning the field’s second fastest last-out speed figure but by far the fastest closing figure. Last time out she returned from a September layoff where she was pulled up and vanned off at Presque Isle Downs but returned to upset a strong field at Churchill Downs at nearly 8/1 first off a layoff. She should get the right trip off the speed and I love Hall of Famer John Velazquez taking the call. Upset special!
Race 11: Ohana Honor - 2 pts win (US Morning Line Odds: 3/1) - BEST BET
The Grade 3 Tropical Park Derby for three-year-olds at a mile and a sixteenth on turf is our feature race on today’s card. Ohana Honor races for the barn of Shug McGaughey which is 2 for 7 (29%) for the last five years with three-year-olds running in turf route stakes races here at Gulfstream. Ohana Honor exits a tough stakes race at Aqueduct where he finished second behind Northern Invader who would likely be favored heavily against this group. He owns a win at the distance and looks perfectly spotted to win from just off the pace here.
Best of luck to all our members playing Saturday’s races from Gulfstream!