God's Tipster's Saturday Aqueduct Picks: 4 races including The Notebook and Grade 2 Hill Prince
Friday’s Race Recap from Aqueduct:
(All odds US)
Race 2: 1st@ 1.45/1 - 2 pt WIN🔥🔥🔥
Race 5: 6th@ 6.60/1
Race 6: 6th@ 2.50/1
We led off our Friday with Aula who stalked the pace and drew away for an easy score at 7/5 odds. He was bet down from his 5/2 morning line. In Race 5, the debuting Judge Rules broke slowly and never really got on track late and the same held true for the other debut runner we had in Race 6 - Voter Registration, who looked like she needed that start while never contending.
Let’s take a look at Aqueduct’s Saturday card where we expect fast and firm conditions with chilly temperatures.
Race 1: Allied Attack - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 10/1)
Two-year-old maidens bred in New York race 6½ furlongs to kick off our Saturday! With the best form in the race having been run on turf and the top dirt speed figure a 55, I’m going outside the box. Allied Attack is an interesting runner in this spot. Even more interesting is the fact that they debuted him at Saratoga against open company where he took a fair amount of play from bettors only to get bumped at the break and eventually finish up the track. The word must’ve been out about something though that day because he faced future stakes winner Agate Road and a sharp looking Chad Brown runner so for him to take money that day seems meaningful. He also lured Jose Ortiz and today he lures top rider Irad Ortiz to ride. Crafty connections know how to win with a price horse when you least expect it. Has a nice series of works leading up to this race and this guy is a major play if you can land anything close to the 10/1 morning line.
Race 2: Engineer Empire - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 5/2)
Allowance runners bred in New York race a mile on the main track. On form, most of these look pretty evenly matched so I’m going with a lightly raced runner I feel has more upside than the rest and that’s Engineer Empire. He debuted last February at today’s one-mile distance here at Aqueduct and beat more than half the field home before stretching out in his second start and decimating a field of overmatched rivals. Since then, this three- year-old son of Empire Maker has been on the shelf but has a smart worktab with four consecutive five furlong drills that look like they’ll have him set to fire his best shot today. Christophe Clement wins with layoff runners like these 23% of the time and he’s 2 for 3 since 2019 with NY bred runners returning off similar layoffs to race a mile on the main track with an average payoff of $19.80. We won’t get those odds today, but 5/2 here offers more than fair value.
Race 4: Wine Responsibly - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 6/1)
The Notebook, at 6 furlongs, for two-year-olds bred in New York is our first of three stakes races on the card. This field of nine should produce a pretty fast pace and for that reason I think Wine Responsibly deserves a look at a fair 6/1. Trained by Linda Rice who’s been on fire all year, Wine Responsibly hasn’t sprinted on dirt yet, but he’s had two starts at a mile – both on wet tracks. Last time out he chased stablemate El Grande O in the mud and he wasn’t going to beat that one but I think between the cutback, the fast pace and the move to a fast track this guy has a big chance to take this.
Race 5: Freedom Trail - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/1)
The Grade 2 Hill Prince at a mile and an eighth on turf for three-year-olds is a perfect example of a Grade 2 quality field. Integration is our 1/1 morning line favorite and he might be best off a score in the Grade 3 Virginia Derby, but that field hasn’t returned to do much. I like Freedom Trail here. Last time out Freedom Trail faced older horses at today’s distance and just missed wearing down Exact Estimate. That one would return to just miss in last week’s Artie Schiller stakes and three runners who finished behind him also improved their next out speed figure. I was really impressed with his powerful stride nearly running down Exact Estimate, who is no slouch, and he should be perfectly positioned turning for home to run down the speed.
Best of luck to all our members playing Saturday’s races from Aqueduct!