God's Tipster's Saturday Aqueduct and Keeneland Picks: 6 races, with 2 stakes: Perryville, Lexus Raven Run
Friday’s Race Recap from Aqueduct:
(All odds US)
Race 1: 3rd@ 7.40/1
Race 3: 10th@ 77.50/1
Race 4: 1st@ 2.00/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Race 5: 6th@ 12.10/1
Race 6: SCRATCH
In Race 1, I was right to go against the heavy favorite who really never looked comfortable over the off track. Treble Clef got the worst of the trips being hung outside the entire way but continued on with good energy late and won’t be a maiden much longer. In Race 3, The Cobbler broke last and that was that. He never mounted a run after that. Probably needs new shoes. In Race 4, Most of All raced BEST of all stalking the pace and drawing off to an emphatic score. In Race 5, Lone Star Wildcat was last by a long way early but gathered momentum turning for home and was moving best of all, rocketing by horses late. She’ll appreciate added ground next out. In Race 6, they were rained off the turf and King Cause was a very late scratch.
We got a winner and a third place finish but got cooked with a few wide trips with our longshots.
We’ve got racing from Aqueduct and Keeneland set for Saturday! I’ll be handicapping for a wet track in NY and fast and firm conditions at Keeneland. Let’s get to work!
Belmont at Aqueduct:
Race 2: Value Area - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 7/2)
Two-year-old maidens sprint 6 furlongs here on what I expect to be a track with some moisture in it. Value Area gets the nod off a strong second place finish last time out. She finished second behind Ringy Dingy who would return to win a stakes race at Delaware Park. I liked the way Value Area pressed the pace and dispatched with her rivals before taking on the eventual winner and never backing down. In her debut effort the two who beat her both ran big races next out. I think there’s some class to this filly and if she can sit the trip off the speed she’ll make the 7/2 morning line odds look like they’re giving away free money at the track today!
Race 8: Cascais - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 4/1)
Allowance runners go a mile and if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em! That’s what I’ll say here as Cascais looks like the exact type of horse for Chad Brown I’d usually try to beat only to have him prove me wrong. Cascais raced twice last year breaking his maiden in his second career start, defeating subsequent Grade 1 Blue Grass winner Tapit Trice in the process. Trainer Brown has only brought back one runner for this ownership group off a similar layoff and they were beaten just over a length in a stakes race. This doesn’t strike me as the type of horse he’d run short and while I can’t guess if he’ll be with the pace or just off it, he’s had plenty of good foundational works and catches no killers for his comeback effort.
Race 9: Tavin - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 5/1)
Two-year-old fillies sprint 6 furlongs here in this race for New York bred maidens. The debut runners don’t look great unless the Christophe Clement runner has some talent but I want to take Tavin off a fourth place finish in her debut. She finished 3/4 length behind Book of Wisdom who’s 3/1 on today’s morning line here but that one was making her third career start. Tavin had to shift ground in the lane and was moving well late. Trainer Brittany Russell is 26% this year but is 0 for 3 at Aqueduct for the meet so far. Russell is 33% (3 for 9) with dirt runners making their second career start in a sprint getting blinkers. 5/1 would offer value here.
Race 5: Sweet Gal of Mine - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 4/1)
Two-year-old maiden fillies duke it out over 6 1/2 furlongs. With 3/4 of this field of 12 without a start I’m siding with one who not only started but damn near pulled off a win and that’s Sweet Gal of Mine who ran fast enough to win most races at this level. Sweet Gal of Mine shot to the lead that day and battled through punishing fractions before missing by a game neck. That race has already produced a next-out winner and while there are a few debut runners in this group that look like they may have some quality, I have to side with experience when they run such a fast race first time out.
Race 6: Post Time - 2 pts win - BEST BET (US Morning Line Odds: 15/1)
The ungraded Perryville Stakes at 7 furlongs is one of the most fun non-graded stakes races you’ll ever find. We’ve got three Graded stakes winners who finished 8th, 10th and 16th in this year’s Kentucky Derby facing some new shooters. Post Time is my selection here and my love affair with this horse goes back to October 7 of 2022 when I saw this horse break his maiden in impressive fashion from off the pace. He followed up that score with back-to-back off-the-pace wins in races where he didn’t have particularly good pace setups. After seeing him win the Maryland Juvenile I proclaimed this horse a serious contender for the Kentucky Derby trail. He went to the sidelines after that and returned with another smashing effort at Pimlico just last month proving that he can win outside of Laurel. He ran his final 1/4 mile in 23.23 which may not sound like much but is wicked fast at Pimlico. I looked through all the charts for the Pimlico meet and the best I could find was hard-knocking seven-year-old gelding Sir Alfred James running his final 1/4 mile in 24.39 in a stakes race there. Keep in mind, Post Time did his under a strangle-hold in his first start off a lengthy layoff. The knock on Post Time is that he hasn’t beaten much in his four starts but I’d argue that he can only beat the runners they put in front of him and he’s done that so easily I’ve been looking forward to seeing him get a test. Saturday he’ll definitely get that as his local rider ships down to Keeneland with him. I think there will be more pace here than most people expect as I see Verifying, Confidence Game and Dr. Venkman all going. Dr. Venkman is 7/2 on the morning line snd maybe I’m missing something but the three who finished behind him all regressed in their next start and he wasn’t very visually impressive with a perfect trip. Post Time from off the pace stamps himself as a force to be reckoned with in the sprint division. I love this horse today.
Race 9: Alva Starr - 2 pts win (US Morning Line Odds: 2/1)
The Grade 2 Lexus Raven Run is our feature race on the day’s card at 7 furlongs for three-year-old fillies. I was a bit surprised to see Alva Starr in here as after her blowout score in the Grade 2 Prioress I thought her connections might shoot for the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare sprint but they instead opted to keep her against runners her age. Alva Starr is just rolling along right now and I’m not sure there’s anyone in her division that’s a three-year-old sprinting filly that can run with her. She blew away some talented horses last time out and faces some of those same rivals today. She’s been working well and it will take a big effort to beat her.
Best of luck to all our members playing Saturday’s races from New York and Kentucky!