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Thursday’s Race Recap from Belmont at Aqueduct:
(All odds US)
Belmont at Aqueduct:
Race 1: 3rd@ 4.10/1
Race 4: 3rd@ 6.20/1
Race 6: 2nd@ 6.40/1
Race 9: SCRATCH
In Race 1 Bento shot to the front but was overtaken at the top of the stretch by a debut runner named Caress. Once again, we exposed a fraudulent favorite and beat that one but didn’t have enough to beat the debut runner. In Race 4, Duke of Gloucester stalked early, shifted to the rail for the drive and continued on battling for second (missing it by a neck) behind the runaway layoff winner. In Race 6, Slammin Gold shot to the front and put away fellow speedster Winwood but heavily favored Solo’s Fury, who I really didn’t like, got the catbird seat off the speed duel and took command in mid-stretch before drawing away for a win.
A second and two thirds from three selections on the day have across-the-board bettors singing our praises but have the hairlines of win bettors like me receding by another 1/4 inch today.
Let’s take a plane south to beautiful Lexington, Kentucky for opening day of the Keeneland fall meet. We’re expecting a few overnight showers, but I’ll be handicapping for fast and firm conditions. We’ve got three Graded stakes races on this Friday card including the Grade 1 Alcibiades for two-year-old fillies. Breeders’ Cup Implications all weekend long. Let’s get started!
Keeneland:
Race 9: Alpine Princess (US Morning Line Odds: 8/1)
The Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades at a mile and a sixteenth for two-year-old fillies is a stepping stone to the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and Brightwork is our 9/5 morning line favorite on the basis of her undefeated 4 for 4 record that includes a win in the Grade 1 Spinaway where she turned back a challenge from the very well meant Ways and Means. I’m always looking for opportunities to beat favorites and trainer John Ortiz doesn’t have great numbers with two-year-old runners stretching from sprints to routes (13% wins with an average speed figure of somewhere between 45 and 50). She’s been brilliant lately but I’m giving the nod to Alpine Princess for the Brad Cox barn. Cox is 2 for 9 (22%) over the last five years with two-year-old dirt runners going sprint to route in Grade 1 Stakes. Those winners were the great Essential Quality and British Idiom, who won this very race in 2019 for Cox. In her maiden score, Alpine Princess raced behind the pace and advanced eight wide into the stretch passing runners for the win. She should have plenty of pace to chase and she’s been working well for her first Grade 1 start. Value at 8/1 or higher.
Best of luck to all our members playing opening day Friday at Keeneland!