God's Tipster's Sunday Belmont at Aqueduct Pick: In the 7th, the Grade 2 Woodward, a rare Chad Brown longshot
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The month of September has drawn to a close and I’d like to thank my members for their support! Here are my stats for the month of September:
Average ROI based on $2 win bets: +$2.82
Total profit for September: $59.70 based on 73 $ WIN wagers
Average placing = 4.56
Win % = 21%
Average odds: 7.72/1
Dirt was by far our most profitable surface with an average ROI of +$3.87 per $2 wagered.
Turf races were a loser for us this month with a losing ROI of -$1.09.
Another profitable month for our members and I look forward to CRUSHING October. You don’t wanna miss this!!
Saturday’s Race Recap from Churchill Downs:
(All odds US)
Race 5: 5th@ 3.59/1
Race 8: 1st@ 1.63/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Race 9: 2nd@ 6.70/1
Race 10: 5th@ 8.66/1
Race 11: 11th@ 8.60/1
In Race 5, My Favorite Girl broke on top of the fast early pace then dropped back before hitting the far turn before rallying mildly again for fifth. In Race 8, More Than Looks looked hopelessly beaten on the backstretch but came with an EXPLOSIVE turn of foot to win the Jefferson Cup going away. In Race 9 heavily favored Zozos got away with murder on the front end setting a slow early pace. Stage Raider switched out for the drive and put in a strong run but could do no better than second. With more pace I’d give him a look in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile next. In Race 10 Happy American was 1000 lengths off the pace on the backstretch and 99 lengths behind on the far turn and rallied to be fifth in a ride I bet jockey James Graham could re-try. In Race 11 Orbi One shot to the lead and battled until the far turn before fading in the drive.
With the rain behind us, we’ll take a look at Sunday’s stakes-stacked card from Belmont at Aqueduct. There’s really no telling what the track conditions are going to be like but let’s go with a muddy main track and soft turf. I’m skipping the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic because with the boggy condition of the turf course I don’t have a strong enough opinion on anyone.
Let’s get to the action!!
Belmont at Aqueduct:
Race 7: Pipeline - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 20/1)
The Grade 2 Woodward at a mile and an eighth is an ultra-competitive race that will likely send a few to the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic in November. And while we were spoiled last year with the great Flightline, this year we’ve got Pipeline. This is a race without a ton of early pace, but the speed-of-the-speed is Pipeline. In his twelve-race career he’s run this distance only twice. The first time was a maiden race where he lost by a head to Vindictive who would go on to become stakes placed. He also beat future Grade 1 star Cody’s Wish by nearly 6 lengths that day. Sure, it was a maiden race race from two years ago, but he proved himself early at a route of ground against some pretty heady company. His other start at 9 furlongs was the Grade 3 Monmouth Cup last year where he ran huge in finishing second behind Graded Stakes winning stablemate Highly Motivated. The three runners who finished directly behind Pipeline all returned to win their next start. Again, this alone doesn’t mean he’ll win today’s Woodward, but I think he’s better at a route of ground than he is sprinting. Last time out he ran a credible fourth behind Grade 1 winners Gunite and Elite Power. Now he stretches back out after that speed tightener and I’m looking for him to speed pop this field. Trainer Chad Brown wins at 23% and he recruited speed-rider Kendrick Carmouche to ride this one. He’s had three works since that most recent start and if he can get away with setting an easy pace, he might just steal this for top connections at long odds.
Best of luck to all our members playing Sunday’s races from Belmont at Aqueduct!