God's Tipster's Sunday Churchill Downs Pick: The 9th is an allowance route with two Brad Cox runners
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Saturday’s Race Recap from Parx Racing:
(All Odds US)
Race 1: 3rd@ 2.50/1
Race 2: 1st@ 1.00/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Race 3: SCRATCH
Race 5: 1st@ 0.50/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Race 6: 2nd@ 0.60/1
Race 7: 6th@ 5.90/1
Race 10: SCRATCH
Race 11: 4th@ 10.20/1
Race 12: 1st@ 3.30/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Race 13: 5th@ 25.70/1
In Race 1, Kohler’s rushed to the lead and battled between horses the entire trip over the sloppy surface and could only manage third. In Race 2, Notice of Action battled with three rivals for the lead, put two of them away by the far turn, dispatched of a third rival in mid-stretch and had enough to hold off a late closer for his first stakes win! After a scratch in Race 3, we had Calle Amada in Race 5 who was behind from the far turn til the sixteenth pole but grinded out a victory by the wire to give us 2 winners from our first three selections. In Race 6 Morning Matcha was last early and given a ground-saving ride by Paco Lopez, switched out for the stretch drive and passed all but one runner and we had to settle for second. In Race 7 Calibrate stalked early and tired late as 1/5 favorite Next blew the doors off the Greenwood cup field. After a scratch in Race 10 Ninetyprcentmaddie battled in the second pack just off the speed while looking uncomfortable racing down inside then in between horses. He hustled on for fourth. In the Grade 1 Cotillion, Ceiling Crusher shot to the front and battled bravely down to the wire holding off all challengers to win. In the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby - Crupi was last early behind the pace set by Saudi Crown. Paco Lopez guided our longshot through to the inside and things looked okay until he steered Crupi into traffic and lost any chance. He probably wasn’t beating Saudi Crown but he should’ve easily been third.
Because of rainy conditions expected in the Northeast we’ll close out our week with a Sunday card from Churchill Downs. I’m forecasting for fast and firm conditions.
Race 9: Highland Falls - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 4/1)
An exciting group of allowance runners line up to race a mile and a sixteenth to close out our week. Trainer Brad Cox starts two runners here and I like both of them but gave the slight edge to Highland Falls - a three-year-old son of Breeders’ Cup Classic winner ,Curlin out of the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Round Pond. Regally-bred horses from high-profile barns like these aren’t supposed to go off at 9/1 odds in their debut but that was the case with this runner as he won first time out at those overlaid odds. He’s had two works since that effort and looks primed to roll from just off the pace once again. The second place finisher last time out returned to put up a 91 speed figure (a four point improvement) and the fourth place finisher had a similar four point improvement while also winning next time out. Horses generally improve second time out and Cox is 30% with runners who have won their next start. Value at 4/1 or higher.
Best of luck to all our members playing Sunday’s races from Churchill Downs!!