God's Tipster's Saturday Saratoga Picks: 6 races including the G2 Prioress and G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup
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Friday’s Race Recap from Saratoga:
(All odds US)
Saratoga:
Race 2: 2nd@ 1.20/1
Race 4: 1st@ 0.25/1 - 2 pt win 🔥🔥🔥
Race 5: 2nd@ 3.50/1
Beautiful weather to kick off the weekend of racing. In Race 2 Dolomite broke a bit slow and was checked and shuffled back from her rail post in her debut effort and came with a wide run and was moving best late while finishing second. In Race 4, Carl Spackler stalked the pace set by Taking Candy and then like taking candy from a baby he ran off to the easiest of victories as the heavy favorite. In Race 5, Locked wouldn’t be caught today. Drum Roll Please was valiant but today was Locked’s graduation day.
We’ve hit our final Saturday of the Saratoga season! We’ve got a pair of Grade 2’s on the card along with the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup. Fast and firm conditions are expected. Let’s get started.
Saratoga:
Race 1: Reagan’s Flame - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 6/1)
Two-year-old fillies sprint five and a half furlongs on turf to kick off our Saturday race card. Reagan’s Flame will need a scratch in order to draw into the body of the race but if she gets in I’ll be giving her a long look. Sire Flameaway wins with 15% of his turf sprinters and this one’s dam - Mizzen Donald was responsible for me connecting on a +$20K pick 6 score winning the final leg by a head some ten years ago in her final career start. That’s what initially caught my eye about this runner, but she’s thrown three runners - all winners so far. One of them won at first asking and another won first time turf in her second career start. She would go on to win 3 times on turf in her career. Trainer Cherie DeVaux has won with 29% of her runners who have debuted in turf sprints over the last five years (4 out of 14). This miss sold for nearly 25x her sire’s stud fee, so someone must’ve seen something they liked. Her works are pretty non-descript so she might slip under the radar if she can draw into the field.
Race 5: Jersey Pearl - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 3/1)
The Grade 2 Prioress for three-year-old fillies is run at six furlongs and our two favorites on the morning line both break on the outside - Alva Starr and Dazzling Blue. Both are VERY fast and there should be some fireworks early on in this race. That probable pace battle is the main reason I selected Jersey Pearl. This three-year-old daughter of Bee Jersey has run some pretty fast races in her own right. On May 27 she actually chased down and defeated Alva Starr who is likely to take more money than Jersey Pearl is. She didn’t embarrass herself in the Grade 1 Test last time out after clipping heels and finishing only 4 1/2 lengths behind Kentucky Oaks winner Pretty Mischievous. She gets the top rider in the world to help her navigate the trip and offers value at 3/1 or higher.
Race 6: Agate Road - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 5/2)
Two-year-old maidens race a mile and a sixteenth on turf. Six of the ten entrants are making their debut but I’m siding with a race under his belt - Agate Road. This two-year-old son of Quality Road out of the dam Yellow Agate was a frustrating loss for us earlier in the meet where he was rained off the turf in his debut, went off slowly, came wide and rallied to get beaten a dirty nose. The Todd Pletcher barn is sticking to their guns trying to get this guy on turf despite his strong performance on the main track and the fact that his dam won the Grade 1 Frizette on the main track. He’s a half to a turf winner though and picks up top rider Irad Ortiz. 5/2 on this guy sounds good to me.
Race 7: Jefferson Street - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 9/2)
Two-year-old blue-blooded maidens sprint 7 furlongs and Jefferson Street is the choice. This two-year-old son of Street Sense makes his debut from the outside and has posted a strong series of workouts leading into this race. I’m a fan of five furlong works and Jefferson Street has those but what I really like are Bill Mott’s numbers in races like these. With debuting two-year-olds in dirt races at today’s seven-furlong distance with Junior Alvarado riding, his runners are 2 for 10 (20%) with an average payoff of $17.10 and a wicked ‘in the money’ percentage of 70%. He breaks from the outside so he should have every chance to stalk the early leaders before making his move.
Race 9: Fancy Feline - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/1)
Allowance fillies and mares bred in New York sprint six furlongs here and I wasn’t going to make a selection here at first as these aren’t my favorite types of races, but with all the speed signed on and all of those speeds being the favorites, I’d like to side with the strongest closer in the group - Fancy Feline. She owns two wins at the distance and has three works since her most recent start - a strong second place behind a runner who would win her next start easily. With clear sailing, Joel Rosario should be able to catch these for the money and 8/1 sounds appealing.
Race 11: Bright Future - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 6/1)
The Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup has more of a Grade 2 or Grade 3 feel this year but at least it attracted an interesting and relatively evenly matched field of runners. Proxy and Rattle N Roll are okay, and I feel like we know who they are already. Bright Future is the one I want here as I think he’s still got room for improvement. This $350K son of Curlin, won at first asking then had a few setbacks, but has always kept good company. Earlier this year he finished third against a decent field on the Kentucky Derby undercard. From there he was vaulted into the Grade 2 Brooklyn at a mile and a half but that proved to be too much for him as he finished eighth beaten more than forty lengths. That’s the race most will look at when they toss this horse as it was his one start without Lasix, but I’m willing to excuse that one poor effort because he bounced back in a big way last time out. Maybe it’ll turn out that Lasix was the difference but I’m taking the gamble that it’s not. Trainer Todd Pletcher isn’t new to the Grade 1 scene and Javier Castellano seemed to fit this guy like a glove last time out. While he didn’t beat much in his last start, he strode out powerfully and with good energy which makes me think he is finally coming into his own. He has the ability to sit just off the pace (of which there’s not much of) and if he can put up an effort like he did last time out he will be a handful here.
Best of luck to all of our members playing Saturday’s races from Saratoga!