God's Tipster's Saturday Saratoga Picks: 6 races including The Diana, Kelso and Sanford, with some good prices

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Friday’s Race Recap from Saratoga:

(All odds US)

Saratoga:

Race 1: 2nd@ 4.10/1

Race 2: 2nd@ 12.30/1

Race 4: 1st@ 1.30/1 - BEST BET 🔥🔥🔥

In Race 1 Book of Wisdom broke beautifully but was no match for Concerti today who drew off for the win. In Race 2, Moore’s Law was rated well behind the field and came with a strong late run but the race was already over as Dreamlike drew off for the win. In Race 4, our BEST BET, Randomized, shot to the front and never looked back WINNING the Wilton Stakes🔥🔥🔥.

A pair of second place finishes and a win shows that our handicapping is rockin’ and rollin’ along as we head into the weekend.

Opening Saturday at Saratoga is always a treat and at this moment we’re not expecting rain, so I’ll be handicapping for fast and firm conditions. Let’s get this party started.

Saratoga:

Race 1: Just Steel - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/1)

Blue-blooded two-year-old maidens get us started on this first Saturday of the Saratoga meet and the inside runner Pirate is likely to take most of the bettors’ booty at the betting windows. He’s 4/5 on the morning line and has the breeding and the connections to be a star. BUT . . . I prefer the two-year-olds I bet on to have more of a foundation. If they don’t already have experience, 5-furlong workouts are preferred. Pirate has none of those and his most recent workout was a gate move. I don’t like gate moves leading up to an actual race. He breaks from the rail and a bad break spells doom at short odds. Thankfully there’s an alternative to Pirate who has both actual racing experience AND 5-furlong workouts. Just Steel is that runner. This $500k son of Justify races for Hall of Fame trainer Wayne Lukas who wins at a respectable 16% (3 for 19) with dirt sprinters making their second career start in maidens at Saratoga with an average payoff of $21.00 and an ‘in the money’ percentage of 63%. Just Steel showed speed and faded in his debut effort at Ellis and that racetrack experience alone gives him an edge over today’s rivals. On top of that he’s had three works since that most recent start including a 5-furlong drill most recently. I’m looking for Just Steel to just steal the treasure from the people who bet Pirate today.

Race 2: Talkin Pharoah - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 6/1)

Starter allowance runners sprint 6 furlongs here and this is a race that seemingly has four die-hard speed balls and a few closers. Talkin Pharoah was claimed by the Linda Rice barn two starts ago. Rice / Jose Ortiz combo has been lethal lately and this guy won his most recent start as the rider pleased. Rice is too hot to ignore these days, especially when she teams with this particular rider. This is value at 6/1 or better.

Race 4: Fluffy Socks - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/1)

The Grade 1 Diana at a mile and an eighth on turf didn’t draw a giant field but what it lacks in numbers it makes up for in class as all 5 are Graded stakes winners and all but Whitebeam are multiple graded stakes winners. In Italian is 2/5 on the morning line and I think she’ll probably go off at those odds, but she faces a tougher field today than she faced last time out and figures to get pace pressure from Marketsegmentation to her outside. Fluffy Socks would be the beneficiary of any pace battles and although it’s hard to envision the Ortiz brothers battling one another into submission there’s a chance the rail horse, Fev Rover, spices things up on the front end too. I liked Fluffy Socks’ most recent start at Pimlico where she made her five-year-old debut and ran her second-best career race. She didn’t have a fast pace to close into and made the most of it running down Spendarella that day. I think she’s better at a mile and an eighth and with the right pace setup she could make things interesting at a price.

Race 9: Casa Creed - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 5/2)

The Grade 3 Kelso came up STRONG bringing together a pair of Grade 1 winners. There’s plenty of pace expected up front here and while Annapolis figures to get his fair share of play, his running style doesn’t really seem like it’ll benefit from the probable pace scenario. Like our 8/5 morning line favorite Annapolis, Casa Creed is a two-time winner here at Saratoga and a three-time winner at today’s distance. But Casa Creed’s wins here include last year’s Grade 1 FourStarDave where he defeated a strong field which included Grade 1 winner Regal Glory. Class edge.

Race 10: Gold Sweep - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 3/5)

Race 10: Gold Sweep / Call the Cavalry - 1 pt Exacta Box (a reverse forecast for our UK members)

The Grade 3 Sanford at 6 furlongs for two-year-olds is today’s co-feature race. There are some interesting looking runners in here, but they’d need to improve a ton to contend with Gold Sweep, who was so impressive winning the Tremont last time out at Belmont. Not just the final time and speed figure he put up but the effortless way he did it has me having a hard time thinking someone will beat him here. If the same horse shows up everyone else is running for second. For those who play exactas (or if the favorite stubs his toe) I like Call the Cavalry who also leveled out nicely in winning his debut, albeit with a far slower final time.

Race 11: Cigarette Boat - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 15/1)

Maidens sprint 5 1/2 on turf here and our favorite breaks towards the inside, Beer Run for trainer Wesley Ward. He’s got plenty of speed and failed as the favorite last time out. Cigarette Boat is the pick, and he breaks just outside this favorite. He races for trainer Mike Maker today and comes into this off a bullet workout. Sire Kantharos is one of my favorite turf sprint sires and he gets to try grass for the first time today. His dam was a winner on turf at a route of ground. His start over synthetic this past spring at Turfway led to a career best performance and synthetic can play similar to turf. In viewing his replay, he didn’t have the best trip and had to change lanes so we may not have even seen his best that day. Most of all though I like his running style. He should be in good position to sit just off the speed and be there to pick up the pieces at crunch time.

Best of luck to all our members playing Saturday’s races from Saratoga!