God's Tipster's Saturday Belmont Park Picks: 5 races with stakes - including two Grade 1's – and longshots
Friday’s Race Recap from Belmont:
(All odds US)
Race 1: 4th@ 5.10/1
Race 2: 4th@ 2.75/1
Race 4: SCRATCH
Race 5: 5th@ 41.25/1
Race 10: 5th@ 18.00/1
In Race 1 Skyler’s Starship broke slowly on debut which spells doom in any five-furlong turf sprint. She rallied mildly for fourth. In Race 2, Sea Dancer chased 3 wide and rallied inside for fourth missing third by a nose. After a scratch in Race 4 we had Alpha Sonny in Race 5 and in his second career start he showed improved gate speed and pressed the early pace but faded to fifth. In Race 10, Meow Meow Hiss raced well back early and rallied mildly for fifth.
Let’s head on out to closing weekend at Belmont Park before the Saratoga season kicks off. Fast and firm conditions are expected once again beneath sunny skies and humid temperatures. Let’s get started!
Race 3: Risk Free - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 12/1)
Maidens go 7 furlongs on turf in this one and based on numbers we have a pretty evenly matched group although the early odds board doesn’t seem to reflect that. Risk Free races for low profile connections that will ensure long odds. She’s raced once on turf and to be honest she’s not really bred for the surface but her one turf start was better than it looks being beaten just under three lengths with a strong closing fraction. That day she was ridden by an apprentice and today she gets a major upgrade to Joel Rosario. Her last race was a career best effort and although it was on dirt it was faster than all but one of these runners have put up. Bombs away to start our day!
Race 6: Robyn and Eli - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 20/1)
Allowance runners bred in New York sprint 6 furlongs. Robyn and Eli was trained by Chad Brown for the first 8 starts of her career but runs for a new trainer and jockey after breaking her maiden last time out. That will take most of the attention away from this gal, but it doesn’t take away the fact that she’s the strongest closer in a field full of speed types and is one of only three with a win over this turf course. New connections win with new acquisitions 18% of the time at average odds of 4.95/1. She will outrun her odds for sure.
Race 8: Be Your Best - 2 pts win - BEST BET (US Morning Line Odds: 10/1)
The Grade 1 Belmont Oaks for three-year-old fillies at a mile and a quarter brings together just an average group for a Grade 1 race of this stature. There’s not a lot of speed signed on here and I expect Prerequisite to lead them early but just like she did in her last start I don’t expect Be Your Best to be very far off that early pace. She was gaining good ground on Prerequisite at 13/1 last time out and today with that race under her belt she should be tighter at twice the odds of that one.
Race 10: The Foxes- 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 7/2)
The Grade 1 Belmont Derby at a mile and a quarter is another race that looks pretty devoid of early pace. The Foxes is the selection here based on CLASS. He’s been facing tougher competition in Europe running most recently in the Epsom Derby behind two next out winners. He faces no such competition today and only has to worry about the warm conditions as his connections have already mentioned that the temperature is a concern of theirs. If he’s right this should be his race.
Race 11: Vahva - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/1)
The Grade 3 Victory Ride is for three-year-old filly sprinters and there’s a ton of early pace in this one without much staying power late. While I really wished there were a filly cutting back from a route, Vahva comes into this off two career best efforts. After a brief try at the Kentucky Oaks trail, I think these connections now realize this is a sprinter and not a router. Trainer Cherie DeVaux won the Grade 3 Manila on Friday at Belmont with a 7/1 shot and she’s at 19% on the year as a trainer who continues to get better and better. This miss has bullet workouts leading up to this and I think this is her springboard to a shot at the Grade 1 Test at Saratoga later this summer.
Best of luck to all our members playing Saturday’s races from BEAUTIFUL Belmont Park!