God's Tipster's Saturday Ellis Park Picks: 6 races on stakes-filled card with Wise Dan, Stephen Foster, more
Friday’s Race Recap from Belmont:
(All odds US)
Race 1: CANCELLED
Race 5: CANCELLED
Race 9: CANCELLED
That’s two days in a row and several days this month they’ve cancelled on us due to poor air quality because of the Canadian wildfires:
Here’s to hoping things clear up for Saturday. In case they don’t, I’m going to change course and take a look at racing from Ellis Park for their Grade 1 Stephen Foster race card.
Race 2: Fancy - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 7/2)
Three year old maiden fillies race 7 furlongs and $1.25 million purchase - Pumpkin Scone is likely to take most of the attention in the wagering. She was even money on debut and failed to keep pace going shorter barely holding second. I prefer Fancy who shortens up from a mile after racing off a brief layoff for trainer Brendan Walsh (26% wins) and jockey Luis Saez. She’s worked four times since her last start and should sit the trip just off the speed.
Race 4: Uno Mas Bourbon - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 12/1)
Maidens sprint 6 furlongs here and I don’t love any of the runners with starts under their belt. Ian Wilkes can pop at a price every now and again with a debut runner and that’s what I’m looking for from him today with Uno Mas Bourbon. This two-year-old son of Macho Uno has been working with purpose for a Wilkes barn that’s been winning at an 18% clip. He’s got a few zippy five furlong drills and is out of a dam that has thrown two first out winners and another who lost by a head from five runners. The price should be right!
Race 6: Surveillance - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 6/1
Stakes-level Sprinters race 6 1/2 furlongs and this is a cool group of Grade 3 type sprinters that have been knocking heads for the last year or so. Surveillance went on a tear this winter winning three in a row before trying turf and then facing stronger in the Grade 3 Count Fleet sprint. He finished behind a few of these in a race on Kentucky Derby weekend but today I think he’s better posted outside of the speed. Bango is our probable favorite and this guy defeated that one twice this winter. Interesting at 6/1 or better.
Race 8: Royal Take Charge - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 6/1)
The Grade 2 Fluer de Lis at a mile and an eighth pits top fillies and mares against one another. The likely favorite is A Mo Reay, but she’s never raced this far, neither has second choice - Pauline’s Pearl. As a matter of fact, only two runners have won at today’s mile and an eighth distance and I’m siding with one of those - Royal Take Charge. A winner of 3 of 4 career starts this is a step up in class but she’s bred for the distance and looks like she’ll be near the early pace. Three works since her last start for a trainer who does his best work here at Ellis Park.
Race 9: Kittansett - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 12/1)
The Grade 2 Wise Dan at a mile and a sixteenth on the lawn has Set Piece installed as a deserving 4/5 favorite. A winner of 12 of 27 starts, Set Piece will be tough but I’m going to try to upend him with Kittansett. A winner of 1 of 3, what Kittansett lacks in experience he seems to make up for in class. This $1.4 million purchase has taken some time to get going but it looks like he may have finally found a home on turf. Last time out he redeemed himself after a poor showing in his seasonal debut. Looking for him to fully capitalize third time off the layoff.
Race 10: West Will Power - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 7/2)
The Grade 1 Stephen Foster looks more like a Grade 2 or Grade 3 field most years but it’s an evenly matched field nevertheless. Ken McPeek has a few contenders here with Smile Happy and Rattle N Roll but McPeek is 0 for 10 at this meet and only one runner has hit the board. I’m cautious about using McPeek runners in general because oftentimes they seem to run hot and cold. I’m siding with the more consistent West Will Power for the powerful Brad Cox barn. He’s won 3 of 5 starts at today’s distance with two second place finishes. He’s got the early speed to contend from the outside from the get-go and his one start here at Ellis Park was a head-loss in a very fast-run mile race. Value at 7/2 or higher.
Best of luck to all our members playing Saturday’s races from Ellis Park!