God's Tipster's Saturday Belmont and Monmouth Park Picks: 3 races at each track with Pegasus, Salvator Mile
To sign up for daily emails with the day’s FULL selections and weekly Saturday videos, click here
Friday’s Race Recap from Belmont:
(All odds US)
Belmont Park:
Race 1: 3rd@ 9.50/1
Race 10:7th@ 1.80/1
In Race 1, Jimmythetooth broke well enough and sat just off the early lead. He switched out for the drive and seemed well positioned to make some noise in the stretch but lugged in throughout the stretch which hampered his chances and relegated him to third. It rained in between races 1 and 10 and in Race 10, the massive Echo in Eternity once again caught a sloppy track which she spun her wheels on and never got on track.
We’ve got a Saturday from Belmont and Monmouth Park with fast and firm conditions expected at both locations. Let’s get to work!
Belmont Park:
Race 1: Inspector Poirot - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 6/1)
Maidens sprint 6 furlongs on the turf to kick off our Saturday. Inspector Poirot is the selection and he’ll be making his debut for the Anthony Dutrow barn with Javier Castellano aboard - just one week removed from his victory in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes. Inspector Poirot was sired by Expert Eye who was a top sprinting stakes winner in Europe who came over to win the 2018 Grade 1 Breeders Cup Mile. He’s only sired three U.S. runners thus far but he’s won with 2 of 3 of those starters. Dam won six times on turf overseas and trainer Tony Dutrow who’s winning at a 25% clip at the meet has won with 2 of 6 debuting turf sprinters over the last five years (33%) with an in the money record of 5 for 6 with those runners (83%) and an average payoff of $22.90. Value play.
Race 7: Dr. Kraft - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/1)
Allowance sprinters bred in New York take center stage in Race 7. We’ve got two speeds breaking from the inside and one breaking from the outside so there should be plenty of pace on. Dr. Kraft is an intriguing win candidate here. He hails from a barn that’s currently firing at a robust 27% and should offer value here. He’s shown steady improvement in his starts while not having the best of trips. Today he goes from turf to dirt for the first time in his career and cuts back slightly in distance. He should be able to sit just off the pace and get first run on the tiring speed before the deep closers kick in.
Race 10: Rosemary Potatoes - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 10/1)
Claimers sprint 6 furlongs on turf close out the Belmont card. This is a hard group to trust as no horse has won more than one race. Rosemary Potatoes is interesting here for a few reasons. First he gets a positive rider switch to Dylan Davis after being ridden by an apprentice rider this year. Second, he’s had the chance on turf nine times all at a mile or longer and he’s always seemed like a horse who would appreciate shorter. He also hails from a low-profile barn that excels with route to sprint runners (20% wins) and will undoubtedly offer value.
Monmouth Park:
Race 7: Fayette Spirit - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 4/1)
Maidens race a mile and a sixteenth on turf and Fayette Spirit is the choice here. This three-year-old son of Kitten’s Joy races for the almighty barn of Chad Brown who’s winning at a mere 39% so far this meet (9 for 23). His speed figures have improved with every start and he’s been off since February. I doubt highly he’ll be 4/1 here in the U.S. This has the look of a 2/1 shot to me but the field he faced last time out was significantly tougher than anything he’ll see today and he should have the run of the race beneath Samy Camacho, who’s winning at a 26% clip for the meet.
Race 10: Salute the Stars - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 9/2)
The Pegasus at a mile-and-a-sixteenth for three-year-olds is the local prep for the Grade 1 Haskell here at Monmouth on July 22. Kingsbarns will be our overwhelming favorite and he’s 8/5 on the morning line but by the time post time rolls around I have him clocked in the 3/5 range. Back in March he won the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and finished a well beaten 14th in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby. On Louisiana Derby day he was allowed to set the pace and dictate terms but today he should have some competition for the early lead and will have to stalk. Salute the Stars was moved to the Brad Cox barn after two improving efforts on turf at Ellis Park last summer. They had planned to try him on turf again but they got rained off and he won his impromptu dirt debut at Churchill Downs at a mile-and-an-eighth giving him a career high speed figure. He battled on gamely that day and I liked the powerful way he strode out. Brad Cox has a 38% win percentage (5 for 13) in dirt route stakes races here at Monmouth and that number improves to 57% (4 for 7) when you drill the parameters down to three-year-olds only.
Race12: Bourbonic - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 10/1)
The Grade 3 Salvator Mile features a ton of early speed. Our 3/1 morning line favorite is Artorius who looked like an up-and-comer for the Chad Brown barn before finishing up the track in the Grade 1 Travers last year. They tried to cut him back to sprinting and that didn’t work so he’s been given time off and based on the opinions of the public handicappers, this guy will be closer to 7/5 by post time. Bourbonic was our 2021 Grade 2 Wood Memorial winner and that was the only race that he’s ever won in his career at a distance other than one mile. Three of his four career wins have come at today’s one mile distance for the barn of Todd Pletcher. He’s likely to get overlooked here but his top speed figures are right there with Artorius. He’s also got a recency edge over that rival today and goes turf to dirt for a barn that wins at an 18% rate with that move. 10/1 sounds like fair value for a runner who should get plenty of early pace to run into.
Best of luck to all our members playing Saturday’s races from Belmont Park!