Garrity's Friday Dad's Hat Happy Hour Handicapping: Monmouth Park, Santa Anita, Belmont, Ellis Park, Woodbine
If it’s Friday, it’s time for another installment of Dad’s Hat Happy Hour Handicapping. We have five plays today, from one coast to another, and then back again, all of which will be run in less than an hour’s time. We expect fast dirt and firm turf in all of them, so pour yourself a tumbler of one of the delicious libations from our friends at Dad’s Hat, and let’s go.
Monmouth Park, Race 7, 4:48 pm ET
$22,000 Claiming, 1 1/16 miles, Turf, 3 & Up
Nine hard-knocking turf claimers start us off today, running a mile and a sixteenth at Monmouth Park. 1-Sandy Lane Kitten checks pretty much all the handicapping boxes: He fits on form, having run pretty well in his last two starts; he fits on class, as his recent races have been against better; and he fits from a trip standpoint, as his rail post should allow rider Jorge Vargas to negotiate a ground-saving trip. Plus, who can pick against a horse named Sandy in a race at the Jersey Shore? We will bet him to win at 3-1. The bet: Monmouth Park, Race 7, $40 to win on 1-Sandy Lane Kitten.
Santa Anita Park, Race 3, 5:01 pm ET
Allowance, 5 ½ furlongs, Turf, 4 & Up
Turf sprinters, seven of them, line up for today’s third at Santa Anita. We’re expecting a hot early pace, which should favor 5-Whatmakessammyrun, who comes off excellent efforts in his two most recent starts. We see him getting good position early, behind a furious battle up front, and rolling late. We will bet him to win at 4-1. The bet: Santa Anita, Race 3, $40 to win on 5-Whatmakessammyrun.
Belmont Park, Race 9, 5:19 pm ET
Allowance/Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 miles, Dirt, Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
A very interesting group of ten filly and mare first-level allowance runners go in this, today’s featured race at Belmont Park. We are vehemently opposed to 3-Guns n’ Graces, who ran fourth in a Grade 1 race, the Ashland at Keeneland, two starts back, and who is trained by Chad Brown, and will be ridden by Irad Ortiz. Add these up and she figures to be a massive underlay; players of late have been especially overbetting horses ridden by Ortiz.
The pick is 10-Sacred Wish, who appears to have controlling speed, and who also, considering that this race is run around one rather than two turns, has an outside post position that is tactically advantageous for a horse with early foot. She may go right to the front, or she may stalk; either way, we think Sacred Wish is getting her picture taken today, and we will bet her to win at 7/2 odds. The bet: Belmont Park, Race 9, $40 to win on 10-Sacred Wish.
Ellis Park, Race 8, 5:11 pm ET
Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ furlongs, Dirt, 2-Year-Old Fillies
A dozen juvenile filly maidens line up for this race at Ellis Park in Western Kentucky. We like the looks of a first-time starter, 11-Bossy Bruin Gal, who has an outside post position and a trainer, Doug O’Neill, who is good with firsters. She’s by Good Magic, out of a Tale of Ekati mare, and while this pedigree suggests she might be better going a little bit longer, her morning works say she will be ready to run in her career debut. We will bet her to win at 12-1. The bet: Ellis Park, Race 8, $40 to win on 11-Bossy Bruin Gal.
Woodbine, Race 9, 5:31 pm ET
$15,000 Maiden Claiming, 7 ½ furlongs, Turf, 3 & Up
Eleven bottom-level maiden claimers line up for the nightcap at Woodbine. The pick is 9-Taybo, who has been OK so far, running twice on synthetic, but who should be much, much better on grass. We like the fact that top jockey Kazushi Kimura, who rode him last time, is back; what we like even more is that he will not have to be the second coming of Nijinsky to beat this sorry group. We will bet him to win at 6-1. The bet: Woodbine, Race 9, $35 to win on 9-Taybo.
That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.