God's Tipster's Saturday Aqueduct Picks: Four races with NY breds, two longshots at big prices
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Friday’s Race Recap from Aqueduct:
(All odds US)
Aqueduct:
Race 3: 3rd@ 0.95/1
Race 4: 2nd@ 7.10/1
Race 6: *1st@ 2.10/1 - Disqualified and placed 2nd
In Race 3, Excellent Timing set a wicked pace and paid for those fast fractions as he wilted in the lane. In Race 4, I was trying to beat Magical Ways at odds on thinking he wouldn’t get the distance but he proved me wrong. Our selection, Succeed, was gaining good ground on him but it was too late and not enough to catch the winner. As the day got progressively more frustrating in Race 6, our selection Refutah, won the race but was disqualified for herding second place finisher, Inspector, so once again we had to settle for second place.
Let’s head back to Aqueduct for Saturday’s races. Once again we’re expecting fast and firm conditions. Let’s get started!
Aqueduct:
Race 4: Im Just Kiddin - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 7/2)
FUN little turf sprint for allowance runners bred in New York. Im Just Kiddin is the selection here and she is a well bred three-year-old daughter of Triple Crown winner Justify out of the graded stakes winning mare Khancord Kid who raced for these connections. She’s a half to Grade 1 Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint winner Bar of Gold and two other stakes placed runners. Aside from the breeding, her only career turf sprint was an impressive effort, winning off in hand in just her second career start. She was thrown to the wolves running in the Grade 2 Miss Grillo but actually didn’t run that badly finishing only four lengths behind Pleasant Passage, who would go on to run second in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf in her next start. I get the feeling this one has more class than she’s shown as the Miss Grillo was a bit too far for her and her two dirt starts are throw-outs and I think her 7/2 morning line looks like good value.
Race 5: Two for Charging - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 3/1)
More New York bred allowance runners like up for Race 5 but this time we’re racing on dirt. We’ve got a field of mostly winter at Aqueduct hard-knockers and then we’ve got the return of Two for Charging for the Jorge Abreu barn who’s back off a July 28 layoff. That day was when he broke his maiden at Saratoga facing a field of runners who would return to improve their next speed figures. Abreu has been working this guy since January and his most recent workout was a snappy one 47.3 breezing from the gate. Abreu does quite well in these types of allowance sprint races.
Race 6: Forward Cast - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 20/1)
Maiden claimers bred in New York race a mile and a sixteenth on turf. This is a pretty weak-looking group so I’m taking a shot to beat the favorites with 20/1 Forward Cast. Trainer Bob Dunham is 1 for 8 (13%) over the last five years with runners in turf route races but his one winner paid nearly 65/1 odds. Forward Cast has only run once but was bumped a few times at the break and basically lost any chance she had at the start of the race. She actually got moving nicely, ultimately finishing faster than anyone else in the race by a pretty wide margin despite her 6th place finish. That bodes well for the increase in distance. While his dam’s side doesn’t have much turf influence, her sire, Courageous Cat, was a Grade 1 winning turf miler. Plenty of works (4) since the last start. Bombs away!
Race 8: Ten Cent Town - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 12/1)
Three year old colts and geldings line up for Race 8 which is the NY Stallion stakes at 6 1/2 furlongs on the main track. We’ve got some speed near the rail with East Coast Girl but I prefer Ten Cent Town who’s been working well in preparation for today’s start. After two races at Belmont & Saratoga where he finished second without ever contending. He returned from a layoff and improved his top speed figure by a full 21 points for a trainer who’s won 2 of 5 starts at this meet and won at a 28% clip last year and has won 25% of his stakes starts. He gets a rider change to Manny Franco who’s also on fire and this guy is looking like more and more of an overlay the more I read.
Best of luck to all our members playing Saturday’s races from Aqueduct!