Racing at Aqueduct.
Racing at Aqueduct.NYRA

God's Tipster's Thursday Aqueduct Pick: In the 8th, weak maiden claimers sprint 6 furlongs in longshot special

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Wednesday’s Race Recap from Tampa Bay Downs:

(All odds US)

Replays from yesterday’s races from Tampa Bay Downs can be found here (scroll to bottom of page):

Race Replays & Trackside Video

Tampa Bay Downs:

Race 1: 2nd@ 1.80/1

Race 4: 7th@ 12.50/1

Race 7: 5th@ 5.10/1

In Race 1, after two early scratches, Sassy Charlie had an easier time on the lead. Still set a pretty fast pace and while Shall Return put in a strong run off a layoff to get second, she needed a bit more pace pressure up front as Sassy Charlie had it her own way the whole way. In Race 4, Thejigisup had the run of the race pocketed just off the early speed. At the top of the stretch the seas parted and he had every chance to catch the speed but he never quickened while fading to seventh. In Race 7, Finlandias Neat opened as the heavy favorite but drifted up to 5/1 by post time. He sat a pocketed trip while checking off heels early and made a brief bid before flattening out.

We’re moving our tack back up north to Aqueduct where we’re expecting fast and firm conditions beneath sunny skies. Let’s GOOOOO!!!


Race 8: Somama Beach - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 30/1)

Pretty gross looking group of maiden claimers lines up to sprint 6 furlongs and these races have been our most profitable over the years so let’s shoot for the moon. Let me paint a quick picture of the form in this race: there is none. Our 3/1 morning line favorite hasn’t been seen since August for a barn that’s winning at 8% on the year and breaks from post 10. There are a few wildcard first time starters that might take some action but I’m taking a shot with Somama Beach who breaks from the rail. This guy showed early speed in his first two starts late last summer but not much staying power. He was laid off and transferred to a new barn where he improved his speed figure mightily (he doubled it) and showed better staying power while racing 7 wide into the lane. That day he faced much better than he’s facing today and finished just two lengths behind Camm Duke who would go on to break his maiden by 11 and put up three straight speed figures in the 70’s - double what these horses typically run. From there he was stretched to a mile which is too far for him but he was cut back to 6 furlongs again where he produced a speed figure of 35 after stumbling at the start. That 35 actually represents the 2nd fastest speed figure at today’s 6 furlong distance. Last time out he was stretched to a mile again which is too far. Today he gets a barn change to Steven Jerkens and takes blinkers off. Steven Jerkens doesn’t start many or win many but he connected in 2019 at 29/1 with Wailin Josie making the same blinkers off move against a maiden claiming field. Considering the fact that he moved up the last time they took blinkers off and he also moved up the last time they cut him back in distance I’m looking for him to pick up the pieces at a HUGE number against a field that will be searching for oxygen masks by the time they hit the far turn.

Wishing our members the very best of luck wherever you’re playing today. Bet with your head and not over it!

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