God's Tipster's Saturday Picks: The Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, Bluegrass at Keeneland, Santa Anita Derby, more

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Friday’s Race Recap from Keeneland:

(All odds US)

Keeneland:

Race 3: SCRATCH

Race 7: 4th@ 11.33/1

Race 9: 2nd@ 1.20/1

After a scratch in Race 3 we were left with our two stakes selections. In Race 7, Lugan Knight stalked a fast early pace set by Corona Bolt and Hejazi. Was hoping for the speedsters to tire one another out but both kept on going in what turned out to be an exciting race won by Corona Bolt. Lugan Knight checked in 4th. In the Grade 1 Ashland, our day’s BEST BET, Punch Bowl was stuck behind horses much of the way and had to bully her way out at the top of the stretch and was moving best late while grinding down the eventual 20/1 upset winner losing by a diminishing neck. This race won’t be in jockey Flavien Prat’s career highlight reel.

It’s Grade 1 Toyota Bluegrass day! It’s Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby day! It’s Grade 2 Wood Memorial day! The final Kentucky Derby prep weekend is upon us and we’ll have selections for all three of those races along with a few other money-making opportunities. Similarly cloudy conditions are expected at Keeneland and Aqueduct and sunny skies are expected at Santa Anita. Let’s get to the action!

Aqueduct:

Race 2: Mz Big Bucks- 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 10/1)

We start the day with turf sprinters bred in New York and this is our first opportunity to make some money with a price horse. Mz Big Bucks debuts for trainer Michelle Nevin, who’s already 1 for 2 at this short meet with a second place finish. She meets no killers today as she breaks from the rail. Out of the dam Frivolous Buck, who was a winner of four and stakes placed on turf, she’s a full sister to Dancing Buck, who won last year’s Grade 3 Belmont Turf Sprint. That one is a winner of 5 of 11 with three second place finishes. She’s owned and trained by the same people who own that one and he was the precocious type. The rail post is no bargain so a clean break is a must but her workouts indicate she may have some speed.

Race 4: Treaty Obligation - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 3/1)

Maidens race a mile on the main track and we were on today’s 4/5 morning line choice Let It Ride when he made his debut and did all the dirty work before getting nipped on the wire at nearly 7/1. Today at expected odds on favoritism I’m looking to beat him as he’ll be racing an additional furlong over a new surface for a trainer who’s only 1 for 6 with favorites on dirt in Maiden Special Weight routes. This may be a rare opportunity to get fair odds on a Chad Brown runner on this circuit and that’s the angle I’m using with Treaty Obligation here. After finishing third in his debut effort between two runners who would improve their speed figure in their next start to a robust 93, Treaty Obligation was odds on in his next start. There he caught a well meant first time starter named Victory Way who we’ll see run in today’s Grade 3 Bay Shore later this afternoon. With Tapit on the dam’s side I think the added distance will only help and I can never turn down 3/1 value on horses like these with the stats Chad Brown has been putting up.

Race 8: Expressman - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 12/1)

The Grade 1 Carter drew a Grade 3 type field this time. Repo Rocks is all the race off 4 consecutive wins and a miracle training job by Jamie Ness, turning this guy’s career around. He’s looked like a beast but the rail horse, Today’s Flavor, has a ton of early speed and they won’t want to let him get away. In the event there’s a pace battle I’m taking my chances with Expressman who makes his stakes debut here for trainer Todd Pletcher. Expressman hasn’t been able to yet live up to the bar he raised for himself when he debuted with a blowout maiden victory at Saratoga earning a speed figure of 107, but he’s also never finished worse than second in four career starts. His last two races have been at longer distances and last time out he battled on gamely when headed in the stretch by Montauk Point to grind out a win. Today he cuts back two furlongs and should have plenty of pace ahead of him. Top connections in his corner at 12/1 or better and I’m hoping for Expressman to put us on the fast track to the cashing window!!

Race 11: Slip Mahoney - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 6/1)

The Grade 2 Wood Memorial at a mile and an eighth is the final Grade 1 Kentucky Derby prep for New York based runners. Our two morning line favorites bookend this field as 5/2 favorite Hit Show drew post 13 and will need to be much the best to win from there and Dreamlike, the maiden, drew the rail and is lined at 7/2. Neither fared well with the post draw and I’m going for a mid-pack runner from the same barn as Hit Show and that’s Slip Mahoney. Slip Mahoney debuted against future Grade 3 Sam F. Davis winner Litigate. In his next start he finished a game second to Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby winner and today’s Grade 1 Toyota Bluegrass favorite - Tapit Trice. Finally avoiding a field with future Tampa Bay stakes winners Slip Mahoney still had to hold off a game run by Crupi on Jan. 23 to break his maiden. In his last start, the Grade 3 Gotham at a mile, he was off slowly and came rolling late after being taken 9 wide in the stretch in a mess of a 14 horse race. Slip Mahoney is bred to improve with distance and gets a jockey change to Dylan Davis, who was aboard in 3 of his 4 career starts including his maiden win. Unlike many in here, Slip Mahoney has raced here at Aqueduct his entire career and has been working well. Trainer Brad Cox has an embarrassment of riches with Kentucky Derby contenders and a versatile runner like this is always dangerous.

Keeneland:

Race 9: Mendelssohns March - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 20/1)

The Grade 1 Toyota Bluegrass at a mile and an eighth is another huge Kentucky Derby prep. Tapit Trice is our morning line favorite and should be tough here but with his Kentucky Derby ticket already punched after a win in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby, he’s not going for broke here since his main goal is the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby. Mendelssohns March deserves a look. After a win by DQ in a turf debut he was shipped to Oaklawn Park where he was mostly ignored on the tote board. On a sloppy track in his first time racing on dirt he stayed behind, racing on the rail, taking all sorts of muddy kickback. He rated patiently and when a spot opened along the inside he shot through and won easily in professional manner. Runner-up El Tomate returned to improve his speed figure in his next start by 9 points and all three runners who have returned from that race have improved their speed figures by at least five points. From a breeding standpoint the 1 1/8 distance of today’s race should hit him right between the eyes. This guy is a half to Kentucky Derby 3rd place finisher Mr. Big News. Trainer Ken McPeek has won with 25 of 122 of three-year- old stakes runners in route races over the last five years 20% at an average payoff of $13.32. He won yesterday’s Grade 1 Ashland at 20/1 with Defining Purpose and this guy has reportedly been working really well and will be much higher than his 20/1 morning line.

Race 10: Squire Creek - 2 pts win - BEST BET (US Morning Line Odds: 6/5)

Allowance optional claimers sprint 6 furlongs. I feel like every year Brad Cox has a runner on the Bluegrass undercard that’s meant for bigger and brighter and today that runner is Squire Creek. This $525k son of Uncle Mo aired in his debut effort after dueling through punishing early fractions. He faces no monsters today. He’ll be more like 1/2 here in the U.S. so if you can lock in those 6/5 morning line odds with your bookmakers I encourage you to do so.

Santa Anita:

Race 6: I Don’t Get It - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 20/1)

The Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby at a mile and an eighth is California’s main prep for the Kentucky Derby and drew a field of nine runners. I’ll Have Another and Nyquist are two runners Doug O’Neill has trained to win the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby. Both of those runners came into these Derby preps with more seasoning than I Don’t Get It, but his maiden victory last out gave me the impression he’d want more distance. Two starts back he lost by a few lengths to 4/1 morning line choice Skinner after stumbling badly at the start. His form is progressing nicely and he’s working well enough. For a 20/1 shot his speed figures aren’t too far off the morning line favorites. Upset special.

Best of luck to all our members playing Saturday’s races from around the U.S.!