Garrity's Saturday Stakes Picks the Kentucky Derby Preps: Wood Memorial, Bluegrass, Santa Anita Derby, more

Today is the biggest day of Kentucky Derby prep season: With the big race itself just four weeks away, three key preliminary races will be run, in New York, Kentucky, and California. We have plays in five races, all of them stakes, and expect fast dirt and firm turf in all. Let’s go.

Keeneland, Race 6, 3:25 pm ET

Grade 2 Appalachian Stakes, 1 mile, Turf, 3-Year-Olds

Nine sophomore colts line up for the Appalachian. The pick is 2-Papilio, who began his career in Ireland, where he was bred, before being brought to the United States over the winter. He comes off a runner-up finish in the Herecomesthebride Stakes, a result that is better than it might look on paper, as he made up ground on the speed-favoring turf at Gulfstream Park. On the much fairer Keeneland sod, we think he simply looks better than the rest. We will bet him to win at 6-1. The bet: Keeneland, Race 6, $40 to win on 2-Papilio.

Aqueduct, Race 8, 4:19 pm ET

Grade 1 Carter Handicap, 7 furlongs, Dirt, 4 & Up

Seven go in the Carter. It’s a good race. We are eschewing the favorites, and going with a straight-down-the-line speed play, in the form of 1-Today’s Flavor, who has tremendous early foot, and whose rail post will give jockey Manny Franco an excuse to use it: We see him going right to the front, and staying there all the way around the track. We will bet Today’s Flavor to win at 6-1. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 8, $40 to win on 1-Today’s Flavor.

Keeneland, Race 9, 5:15 pm ET

Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes, 1 ⅛ miles, Dirt, 3-year-Olds

The 2023 installment of the Blue Grass Stakes drew a field of eleven. We can’t get past the favorite, 1-Tapit Trice, who has won three races in a row, the most recent a victory in the Tampa Bay Derby, where he was much better than his two-length margin might indicate. This colt has a world of talent, and we think he will show it with a victory in the Blue Grass. We will bet him to win at 5/2. The bet: Keeneland, Race 9, $40 to win on 1-Tapit Trice. 

Aqueduct, Race 11, 6:16 pm ET

Grade 2 Wood Memorial Stakes, 1 ⅛ miles, Dirt, 3-Year-Olds

The Wood has waned in importance in recent years as a Kentucky Derby prep, as trainers have favored other routes to the Louisville. The thirteen entered are a good indication of that, as they are mostly second-stringers as far as Derby rankings go. Still, one of them will win, and you can expect to see a couple of them at Churchill Downs in four weeks.

We like 13-Hit Show. Trainer Brad Cox is based in Kentucky, and doesn’t ship to New York much, but it is worth paying attention when he does, and we think he has found a very soft spot for this son of Candy Ride. Look for him to prevail by running in the middle of the pack early, and making a big move around the far turn. We will bet him to win at 5/2. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 11, $40 to win on 13-Hit Show.

Santa Anita Park, Race 6, 5:43 pm ET
Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, 1 ⅛ miles, Dirt, 3-Year-Olds

The Santa Anita Derby drew a field of nine. The pick is 3-Geaux Rocket Ride, who is lightly raced, with just two career starts, but has been exceptionally fast in both of them. His last start was in the San Felipe, when he finished second to 5-Practical Move, who is entered, and favored, here; we think Geaux Rocket Ride will turn the tables on him today, and earn Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella a trip to the Run for the Roses. We will bet him to win at 3-1. The bet: Santa Anita Park, Race 6, $40 to win on 3-Geaux Rocket Ride.

That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.