God's Tipster's Wednesday Pick for Tampa Bay Downs plus how he fared betting stats for the 2023 first quarter
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Good morning US racing fans!
It’s opening week at Keeneland!
It’s Grade 1 Toyota Bluegrass week!
It’s Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby week!
It’s Grade 2 Wood Memorial week!
The final Kentucky Derby preps are almost upon us and I am PUMPED, EXCITED and READY TO ROLL!!!!!
Before we get to that we have a Wednesday race card from Tampa Bay Downs where I’m expecting fast and firm conditions. The week’s agenda is Wednesday from Tampa Bay Downs, Thursday from Aqueduct and the rest of the weekend mixed between Aqueduct and Keeneland. Now that they’ve run the Grade 1 Florida Derby, I’ll be taking a step away from Gulfstream Park until next December. I may play an odd race card here or there, but the quality of racing really declines there once the Florida Derby is run and they scrap Wednesday racing altogether.
Before we get into the races from Tampa, I wanted to give my members a quick “state of the union” since the first quarter of 2023 just ended.
As of 3/31/23 we have a FLAT BET PROFIT of $0.12 with an overall profit of $27.00. Our January and February were profitable but we couldn’t get those bombs in the winner’s circle in March and it cost us. Here are my stats:
Quarter 1:
*+$0.12 flat bet profit per $2 win bet.
*$27.00 overall profit from 217 bets.
*Average placing of selected runner: 3.76
*Average odds of selection: 7.96
*Average odds of winning selection: 3.67
January:
+$0.47 flat bet profit per $2 win bet 🔥
+$35.60 overall profit from 76 $2 win bets.🔥
Average placing of selected runner: 3.86 🔥
21 wins from 76 selections = 27.6% win rate 🔥
Average odds of selection: 6.46/1 🔥
Average odds of winning selection: 3.52/1 🔥
February:
+$0.97 flat bet profit per $2 win bet 🔥
+$66.80 overall profit from 69 $2 win bets. 🔥
Average placing of selected runner: 3.75 🔥
15 wins from 69 selections = 21.7% win rate 🔥
Average odds of selection: 8.42/1 🔥
Average odds of winning selection: 6.00/1 🔥
March:
-$1.05 flat bet loss per $2 win bet 🥶
-$75.40 overall loss from 72 $2 win bets 🥶
Average placing of selected runner: 3.66 🔥
14 wins from 72 selections = 19.4% win rate 🔥
Average odds of selection: 9.10/1 🔥
Average odds of winning selection: 1.38/1 🥶
So that last number a pretty wild statistic. Our horses actually finished better on average in March than they did in January or February (average placing: 3.66 compared to 3.75 in February and 3.86 in January and the odds of our average selection increased to it’s highest level this year of 9.10/1. The issue in March was the average odds of our winning selection dipped to a low 1.38/1 despite higher overall average odds on my selections. To sum it up - in March our longshots failed us. In January and February, we were able to get a handful of bombs, but we had more favorites in March. The great news is we began Q2 / April turning a small profit in the first two days of the month.
This week the focus will be Aqueduct and Keeneland with brief stops in Tampa for some Wednesday action and I’ll also cover the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on Saturday. Here’s a quick idea of what our stats show since I started keeping records in 2019 for Keeneland and Aqueduct:
At Keeneland on the main track look for me to mainly focus on Stakes and Allowance type races. Routes mostly. These have been the most profitable for us. Maiden races (Mdn Spl Wt & Mdn Clm) which are so profitable elsewhere for us are a loser there so I’ll be avoiding them. On turf it’s also routes but I’ll give maiden race a closer look because we’ve been closer to profitable.
At Aqueduct we CRUSH in routes on the main track (+0.46 avg $2 ROI from 235 wagers) but dirt sprints aren’t bad either (+0.37 avg $2 ROI from 293 wagers). Unlike Keeneland though, here I’ll be focusing mostly on maidens where our Avg $2 ROI is +$1.23 per bet from 241 wagers.
Let’s get to Tampa!
Tampa Bay Downs:
Race 6: Trappezoid - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/1)
Starter optional claiming runners race a mile and 40 years on the main track. Trappezoid is the selection based mostly on the value I think we’ll get on him. Like our selection in Race 4, this 8 year old gelding owns the most wins at today’s distance with 8. After being claimed late last year his new connections are searching for their first win with him. They’ve had a few second place finishes and have kept his form consistent. He owns enough speed to get involved early from his inside post and has already defeated 3/1 ML Ghost Stalker and 4/1 ML Hard Lighting whom he’ll meet again today. 8/1 sounds plenty fair.
As always - wishing our members the very best of luck on Wednesday’s races from Tampa!