God's Tipster's Saturday Gulfstream Park and Fair Grounds Picks include the Tom Benson and Louisiana Derby
Friday’s Race Recap from Gulfstream:
(All odds US)
Replays for Friday’s races from Gulfstream can be found here:
Race 1: 5th@ 6.20/1
Race 3: 3rd@ 11.70/1
Race 5: 1st@ 2.70/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Our Friday began with Secret Pocket getting sandwiched at the break. So our plans to go to the lead were immediately foiled. He mounted a run down the backstretch but on the far turn he looked to be pulling up only to re-rally for fifth. Not the trip I envisioned to say the least. In Race 3, we got the trip I was looking for with Miss M M going to the lead. She battled down to the wire at 11/1 after being passed by Pawky on the turn and had to check late when the winner shifted in. Unfortunately that checking caused her to lose second place to Calling All Angels. In Race 5, Strand of Gold was given a perfect trip off the speed and got a dream run up the rail when Lendhercredit went wide on the turn and got the win.
Two winning days in a row give us some momentum heading into the weekend.
I’m splitting this Saturday’s selections up between Gulfstream Park and Fair Grounds (where I recognize many of my overseas members aren’t able to access through their bookmakers). I’m expecting fast and firm conditions at both locations. Let’s get to work on Louisiana Derby Day 2023!
Race 4: Dr Oseran - 2 pts win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/5)
Turf sprinters go 5 furlongs in the Texas Glitter Stakes. Dr Oseran is our 8/5 morning line favorite and our selection. First time out he ran into a buzzsaw named Oxymore who blitzed the field that day last summer. He broke his maiden over polytrack in his next start and most recently got another try on turf about a month and a half ago. The good doctor rocketed to the lead set a fast pace and held the competition at bay. The second and third place finishers returned to win their next starts and improve their speed figures. This trainer and ownership group have a history of winning with turf sprinters and this one looks loaded. Value at 8/5.
Race 6: Siege of Boston - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 4/1)
Allowance optional claiming runners go a mile and a sixteenth on the turf and this is a fun and competitive little group of runners. Siege of Boston looks to have an advantage in terms of pace setup as well as consistency. Since coming to the barn of James Toner (22% wins this meet), he’s run well in every start, finally breaking his maiden two starts back. Last time out he returned from a November layoff to make his polytrack debut and finished a very credible third while closing good ground at the end. There’s enough pace signed on here that should set up his late run and while I don’t think we’ll get the 4/1 morning line odds here in the U.S., our overseas members should look to lock in those odds with their bookmakers.
Race 2: Castlewarden - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 5/2)
Maidens kick off Louisiana Derby day and lots of times these big race days serve as a day to showcase future talent for top barns. Castlewarden might be one such example as he debuts here for 41% winning trainer Brad Cox and Juddmonte. Aside from the red hot barn and rider this guy has some breeding behind him. He’s a full to the speedy Grade 2 winner Laurel River by top sire Into Mischief. Castlewarden had been working like clockwork since January - putting up some rapid drills right here at Fair Grounds. I think he’ll be closer to even money by post time here in the U.S. so if you can lock in the 5/2 morning line I’d encourage you to do so.
Race 8: She Can’t Sing - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 9/2)
The Tom Benson Memorial at a mile and a sixteenth on turf is our lone turf selection today for Fair Grounds. This is a race with a pretty full field of evenly matched fillies and mares. She Can’t Sing is the selection here off a dirt prep at Sam Houston. She ran fine that day as turf is her preferred surface and Fair Grounds is her preferred turf course. Last year she won a pair of stakes races here including this very race. She has enough speed to sit close to the pace without getting burnt and should get first jump on the closers. 9/2 sounds just fine to me.
Race 12: Jace’s Road - 2 pts win - BEST BET (US Morning Line Odds: 12/1)
The Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at a mile and three sixteenths is the longest of all the Kentucky Derby preps and many times in these longer races for three-year-olds, handicappers pick stone closers thinking that these young horses will have trouble getting the distance. Oftentimes though it’s the horses with early speed that win these races because while everyone’s having a chess match near the back of the pack seeing who will make the first run, the speed runs away and that’s the logic I’m using by selecting Jace’s Road here. Jace’s Road enters this race off a dismal performance in the Grade 3 Southwest where he was run off his feet by Arabian Knight over a sloppy track. Jace’s Road had run poorly over a sloppy track in the past so I’m willing to forgive that performance. On Dec. 26 over a fast track at the Fair Grounds he defeated a reasonably strong field in the Gun Runner Stakes by 5 1/2 lengths, while under wraps. The field included two next out winners as well as the recent blowout winner of the Grade 3 Gotham, Raise Cain. Without an abundance of speed signed on here I see a scenario where Jace’s Road shakes loose and leads them on a merry chase for a 41% winning trainer and a 33% winning rider. The 12/1 odds here sounds too good to be true.
Best of luck to all our members playing Saturday’s races from around the U.S.!