God's Tipster's Thursday Gulfstream Park Pick: The 8th is route for 3yos a notch below Derby trail – or not
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Wednesday’s Race Recap from Gulfstream:
(All odds US)
Replays for Wednesday’s races from Gulfstream can be found here:
Race 1: 8th@ 4.10/1
Race 5: 7th@ 22.10/1
Race 7: 2nd@ 5.10/1
In Race 1 my selection based on the 30/1 morning line was Fabled Prince. At his actual off-odds of 4/1 he wasn’t great value for us here in the States and once they hit the track, he raced between horses most of the way and looked uncomfortable before giving way turning for home. In Race 5 we took a shot with American Odalisque going back to dirt, but she was dreadful while trailing throughout. We got our best run for the day from Sistren, who challenged the early leader and eventual winner early and often and simply wasn’t up to the task while second best.
We’ll stay at Gulfstream for Thursday’s races. We’re expecting fast and firm conditions again (gotta love the south Florida weather!). Let’s get started!
Race 8: Game Change - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 3/1)
Today’s feature race is a 1 1/8 mile that looks like it’s a who’s who of three-year-old colts who are just a cut below the cut to make Saturday’s Grade 2 Fountain of Youth. Who knows, we may see the winner in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. When I first looked at this race my initial thought was to go with Todd Pletcher’s favorite - Classic Catch. He’s already run and won at today’s distance. Last time out he shortened up and chased a slow pace and still closed good ground at Tampa and maybe he’s best. But then the outside runner Game Change caught my eye for a few reasons. Last time out he broke his maiden with a performance that garnered him this field’s top overall speed figure. Watching the replay, that performance was a little dressed up as he sat off a speed duel and rode the rail to victory. But I really liked the way he strode out. Massive stride and won under light handling. Then the thing that really caught my attention was that the morning after this afternoon win (I’m figuring somewhere near 15 or 16 hours later, the barn worked him 3 furlongs in 37 breezing and he was 1 of 2 working that morning. A truly unorthodox move for an ultra-conservative barn. My only thought is that this is an error in the racing form. Nevertheless, I expect a big effort today from Game Change to post a mild upset against this field in Race 8.
Wishing our members the very best of luck wagering on Thursday’s races from Gulfstream!