God's Tipster's Saturday Gulfstream Park Picks include the Forward Gal and a longshot in the Holy Bull
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Friday’s Race Recap from Gulfstream:
(All odds US)
Replays for yesterday’s races from Gulfstream can be found here at Gulfstream Park
Gulfstream Park:
Race 1: 1st@ 4.10/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Race 3: 7th@ 14.60/1
Race 4: 2nd@ 1.20/1
Our Friday began with another win as Max Swagger - expertly handled by Edgard Zayas - shifted from post 10 further inside before the run to the first turn. He continued three wide most of the way and wore down his competition in the lane while holding off the closers. In Race 3, Plan of the Day didn’t break particularly well and remained in mid-flight without ever looking very comfortable while racing between horses ultimately finishing seventh. In Race 4, A La Carte battled through punishing early fractions, took the lead on the far turn and battled gamely down to the wire while Lakota Territory had the benefit of the trip off the speed.
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It’s Saturday and we were going to have racing from both Gulfstream and Aqueduct but with frigid temperatures hitting the New York area they cancelled racing for Friday and Saturday at Aqueduct. We’ve got some rain in the forecast at Gulfstream for a change so I’ll be staying away from turf racing there but a few nice stakes races make up for losing the Aqueduct card. My apologies for my longshot players today. I’ve only got one bomb. The rest will be shorter prices. The rain in the forecast has me thinking it’s going to be a mostly chalky day and I prefer to tip a little more conservatively when the weather is in question.
Let’s get started!
Gulfstream Park:
Race 4: Demurely - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 4/5)
With rain in the forecast these Tapeta polytrack races are a safer bet than the turf races which may end up on Tapeta. Demurely is the selection here and while she’s admittedly had her chances at this level and found ways to lose, I think today she finally meets a field she should handle and she gets a 1/2 furlong cut in distance to 5 furlongs as well. The 5 furlong distance is the distance of her lone win. Saffie Joseph and Edgard Zayas do good work together at 24% wins as well. Looks ready to go at likely short odds. Win bettors might not be able to retire making a bet here but it could be a free square in a pick 5.
Race 8: Shesterkin - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/5)
Allowance optional claiming three year olds race a mile here and that makes these unassuming-looking allowance races perfect “Road to the Kentucky Derby” preps. Tapit Trice was one of my very very early Derby picks off his maiden win at Aqueduct last time out. After racing greenly then closing nicely in his debut he had to get by a stubborn Slip Mahoney. Slip Mahoney would return to break his maiden with an 87 speed figure which validated that effort for me. So why am I not siding with one of two horses I have a future Kentucky Derby book bet on? Well with the prospect of an off track and the fact that there’s no speed in the race coupled with the fact that Tapit Trice tends to break a little slowly, I think Shesterkin may walk on the front end. And with all the hype surrounding Tapit Trice and his $1.3 million dollar price tag, the odds we get on Shesterkin might actually be fair. Gate to wire if we get a less than fast track surface.
Race 10: Atomically - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 3/1)
The Forward Gal is a Grade 3 event at 7 furlongs for three year old fillies. My first instinct here was to side with Red Carpet Ready whose numbers look best and whose speeds looks dangerous here but trainer George Arnold’s numbers at Gulfstream over the last five years aren’t very good (9% wins and 37% in the money). He’s typically more successful at his Kentucky base so I’m siding with Atomically who is one of only two in this race with wins over the Gulfstream surface at this 7 furlong distance. The other being Lynx. The two actually met on October 1 at a mile and a sixteenth and Atomically blasted Lynx winning by nearly 7 lengths. I trust these connections and there’s no disputing their success here at Gulfstream so it’s Atomically for me in the Grade 3 Forward Gal.
Race 12: Shadow Dragon - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds:15/1)
The Holy Bull is a Grade 3 event at a mile and a sixteenth for three year olds. This is a prep on the road to the Florida Derby which of course feeds into the Kentucky Derby. I have a feeling this race is chock full of fraudulent types so I’m hunting for a longshot. I don’t want anyone coming out from the Mucho Macho Man Stakes on January 1. They were fast early and totally fell apart late and a horse like Lord Miles should’ve eaten them up but he’s not very good so he didn’t. Cyclone Mischief is getting a lot of buzz from the public handicappers off a big 6 length win here at Gulfstream last time out. Trainer Dale Romans has been boasting about his horse as well but Romans isn’t exactly known for winning these types of races and like George Arnold in Race 10, I prefer his horses when they race on the Kentucky circuit. I didn’t particularly like the race he comes out of either so I think he’s a little dressed up. Likely second choice Rocket Can had absolutely no excuse when losing to Confidence Game last time out. Confidence Game ran an unimpressive third in the Lecomte. Shadow Dragon sold for 30 times his stud's fee and while his dam was graded stakes placed, his second dam was the multiple Grade 1 winning mare - Jostle. First time out Shadow Dragon was slow into stride but gained 7 lengths in the final 1/8th of a mile to defeat a next out winner. He didn’t get the trip in the Sleepy Hollow but I like that Bill Mott’s showing confidence by shipping this New York bred to South Florida to see what he’s got. His workout on January 20 actually matches his barn mate Rocket Can, who will probably be 1/20th of the price Shadow Dragon will be. Mott just won last weekend’s Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup with Art Collector and he lures top rider Jose Ortiz to ride. Bombs away in the Holy Bull with Shadow Dragon closing from the clouds!
Best of luck to all our members playing Saturday’s races from around the U.S.!