God's Tipster's Pegasus Day Gulfstream Park Picks: 6 races from Florida, a Derby Prep stakes from Oaklawn Park
Friday’s Race Recap from Gulfstream:
(All odds US)
Replays for Friday's races from Gulfstream can be found here at Gulfstream Park
Race 3: 8th@ 13.70/1
Race 5: 1st@ 2.10/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Race 10: 3rd@ 3.00/1
In Race 3 we actually got 13/1 off an 8/1 morning line on Cactus Jack here in the States. I was hoping he’d break first and he did. He won the race to the 1/2 mile pole but was under plenty of pressure to do so and by the far turn he had dropped anchor and faded to last. In Race 5, Hannita’s Empire was hard-used from the start to stay with the pace. Took the lead while going wide turning for home and scored over rank outsider Little Belita. In Race 10, Midnight Getaway got away slowly and rode the rails while finishing in a photo for second behind a runaway winner.
It’s Pegasus Day at Gulfstream Park! Stakes races all afternoon long capped by one of the most competitive fields you’ll find in a Grade 1 event. We’ll also cover the Grade 3 Southwest from Oaklawn Park (which looks like it might be a walk in the park for our likely favorite). Fast and firm conditions are expected at Gulfstream with a chance of rain at Oaklawn. Let’s get to work!
Race 1: Gunesh - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 30/1)
Allowance optional claimers race a mile on the lawn to kick off a long Pegasus World Cup day at 10:50 am EST. Gunesh was our selection last time out at 47/1 odds in the Tropical Park Derby which was rained off the turf onto polytrack. That day she battled for the lead before being overhauled by stakes competition in her first start without Lasix. Today she gets Lasix back and finally gets to the turf - a move I’ve been waiting for for her. Her dam, Dynamite Lass, won 4 of 14 on turf including her first two turf starts as well as a Grade 3. She’s also a half to 5 turf winners with the field’s top Tomlinson figure and is 30/1 on the morning line making her turf debut. She owns early speed and the rail post in a race without a ton of pace. The entire world will be on Breaker of Chains here but I don’t think she’s unbeatable. She ran an impressive-looking race first time in the States after breaking slowly (a nasty habit she has) that produced a pace figure that didn’t hold up as 8 of the 9 returning runners regressed in form. Members with long memories may remember Atakan won for us in a similar spot at 50/1 on turf for these same connections. Bombs away to start Pegasus Day!
Race 2: Dark Vector - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/1)
A tough little field of maidens line up to race 7 furlongs. In this field of 9 I’m not enamored with any of the ones with prior racing experience so I’m siding with a debut runner from the George Weaver barn named Dark Vector. This three year old son of Medaglia d’Oro breaks from the inside so I’m hoping he breaks well but is out of a fast-sprinting dam who won her first two starts including a stakes. He’s also a half to two first-out winners including multiple Grade 2 winner Forbidden Kingdom. He seems to have some nice workouts on his tab capped off by a smart 5 furlong drill. The choice as a gate to wire threat at first asking.
Race 8: Obligatory - 2 pts win - BEST BET (US Morning Line Odds: 7/5)
The Grade 2 Inside Information is a 7 furlong race for fillies and mares and I’m often critical of the morning line odds-maker at Gulfstream but I feel like he’s right about Obligatory being 7/5 in this spot. She’s the selection and I think she offers value here at those odds. She’s won both her starts here at Gulfstream and 7 furlongs is right up her alley. The field’s lone Grade 1 winner is every bit the class of this field and with plenty of pace on she will be motoring late.
Race 10: The Reds - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 12/1)
The Grade 3 Fred Hooper at a mile on the main track really was a fun race to handicap as it brings together such a closely matched group. Miles D is likely to take more action than his 3/1 morning line indicates. His connections alone will have him down to 2/1 by post time but his best races have been a bit longer than this and he’s really not that much better than most of these in here. The Reds is one I’ve always thought a bit counterfeit when he was running for trainer John Kimmel but he was switched to the barn of Saffie Joseph this past summer and got an immediate win. Then they brought him back at Parx in a 1 1/2 mile race that was simply too much for him. In his most recent start he finished a very good closing fourth behind Run Classic and last week’s Louisiana Winner, Happy American. Maybe his new connections have figured him out. He should have plenty of pace to run at and he looks live.
Race 12: Lady Speightsphere - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 6/1
The Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf at a mile and an eighth on the turf is our co-feature race of the day and like many others on today’s card drew an evenly matched field. To me, our morning line favorite, Ivar, prefers shorter distances. I like Lady Speightsphere in this spot. First off her trainer, Roger Attfield, has a 25% win record in the 24 Graded stakes he’s run horses in over the past year. That’s almost double what his next closest competitor has. In Grade 1 events on turf over the last five years Attfield has hit the board with 4 of 7 runners at an average payoff of $20 and an average speed figure in the mid 90’s which is pretty impressive. Last time out Lady Speightsphere held her own with the best in her division in the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare turf finishing third behind top runners Tuesday and In Italian. She should be able to sit the trip just off Atone early and get the jump on the closers turning for home.
Race 13: Proxy - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 9/2)
The Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup drew a very evenly matched field from all over. Proxy is the selection here. Fresh off his very first stakes win in the Grade 1 Clark, Proxy looks to go back to back in Grade 1 races and actually looks like he has a bit of a pace advantage as the race should play into his favor. There should be plenty of pace up front between Ridin With Biden and Defunded knocking heads with Art Collector so not only should he benefit from a pace standpoint but he’s been running against much better than these. Olympiad or AmericanRevolution would be 2/5 against this field. Proxy is getting hot at the right time and has been working well. He has enough tactical speed to sit off the pace and come with his run without dropping back too far.
Race 8: Tejano Twist - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 5/1)
The King Cotton is the sprint stakes on today’s card and just like today’s Gulfstream races this drew a really tightly matched field headed by Gunite and Flash of Mischief, both tough customers. With a plethora of early speed here I’m siding with Tejano Twist - the main closer in the field. Tejano Twist carry’s a three-race win streak into today’s affair which includes a win in the Steel Valley Sprint at Mahonig Valley. He’s 3 for 6 at the distance and won a prep here earlier this month in convincing fashion. Trainer Chris Hartman is also winning 37% of the races he’s entered at this Oaklawn meet.
Race 10: Arabian Knight - 2 pts win (US Morning Line Odds: 1/1)
The Grade 3 Southwest from Oaklawn is our next stop on the road to the Kentucky Derby and it’s led by 1/1 morning line favorite Arabian Knight. Arabian Knight blitzed a talented field of runners on the opening race of Breeders’ Cup Saturday last year and won as easily as you could. He hails from the barn of Bob Baffert, who knows how to win with a three year old at Oaklawn and they paid $2.3 million for this guy so there are expectations here. He’s been working like a machine and after viewing his replay a second time, unless something happens I think the rest are running for second. Lock in even money odds if you can because this will probably be the last time he’ll be that low. Here in the U.S. he’ll be closer to 3/5.
Best of luck to all our members playing Saturday’s races from around the U.S.!