God's Tipster's Saturday Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park Picks: 6 races including the Busanda Stakes
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Friday’s Race Recap from Gulfstream:
(All odds US)
Replays for Friday’s races from Gulfstream can be found here (no subscription necessary. Just click the “videos” link:
Gulfstream:
Race 1: 2nd@ 1.50/1
Race 2: 2nd@ 3.60/1
Race 8: 1st@ 0.90/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Race 9: 4th@ 6.50/1
Days in a row with at least one winner given out to our members: 10 🔥🔥
In Race 1 we were on the well-bred War Beat who was 9/2 on the morning line but was bet down to 3/2 favoritism. Tyler Gaffalione gave him a nice pocketed trip til the far turn where he had no place to go. He extracted himself in midstretch in time to get up for second but it was too late. In Race 2, She’s a Gift was sent early and used often and battled gamely from start to finish but was out kicked by Raison d’Glass losing by a neck in the end. Two straight second place finishes to start the day. In Race 8 we had our BEST BET - Nitrous Channel. He went right to the lead and was hard used from start to finish but he proved best in gate to wire fashion beneath Luis Saez at 4/5 odds here in the U.S. In Race 9, Capture Mi stalked the pace of a runaway, loose, early leader, took aim turning for home and came with a run but faded to fourth.
A winner and a pair of second place finishes from four picks on the day.
We’ve got a combo-pack of races for Saturday as we look at cold and chilly Aqueduct and warm and sunny Gulfstream Park. Let’s get started.
Saturday at Aqueduct:
Race 4: Regality - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 9/2)
Claimers go a mile and an eighth here and this one looks like it may have a favorable pace setup for Regality. The five-year-old son of Alpha will race his furthest distance to date but has had both career wins at distances just over a mile. He sprinted last out against tougher company so he should appreciate the drop in class, the added distance and the fact that there aren’t many on here that will run with him early. Trainer Jeff Englehart wins with an impressive 33% of runners stretching to a route after sprinting from a large enough sample size of (14 of 40). Value at 9/2 or higher.
Race 7: Lord Gatling - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/1)
Allowance sprinters go 6 furlongs in Race 7. There’s a ton of speed signed on here and I notice that a lot of handicappers are siding with closer Liam’s Fire. I prefer Lord Gatling who should get first jump on the tiring speed from his outside post. Lord Gatling was claimed from the hot Linda Rice barn back in October and returned dividends winning in his second start for new connections at 18/1 odds at a much higher level giving his low profile barn just their second win in 60 starts in 2022. Those low profile connections should ensure high odds and the runner up from his last start just blitzed a field by 7 lengths on Thursday’s Aqueduct race card.
Race 8: Occult - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 7/5)
The Busanda is our stakes race at Aqueduct at a mile and an eighth for three-year-old fillies. An early early prep for those with long-term aspirations of winning the Kentucky Oaks on the first Friday in May. We’re a long way from that but there are a few in here with some quality including recent maiden winner Occult. Occult hails from the Chad Brown barn which won 26% of the time they raced last year. This $625k daughter of Into Mischief is bred to handle the stretch out and was visually impressive while dispatching of foes on December 18. Gate to wire threat as the controlling speed in here.
Saturday at Gulfstream Park:
Race 4: Li Li Bear - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 4/1)
Polytrack sprinters compete in this starter allowance race for fillies and mares and I landed on Li Li Bear. With two wins over the Gulfstream synthetic surface and two wins at today’s distance, Li Li Bear also appears to be the speed of the speed. That’s an advantage I want in these shorter polytrack races. Saffie Joseph does well with his polytrack sprinters and tabs a rider he wins at a 25% clip with for today’s assignment.
Race 8: Kingsbarns - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 7/2)
$800k purchase Kingsbarns debuts for the Todd Pletcher barn at a mile for three-year-olds. This runner has a solid enough Tomlinson at 410 for the distance. On December 16 he worked out on even terms with Classy Edition who returned from a layoff to blast a strong field on Wednesday here at Gulfstream and on December 24 he worked on even terms with Shesterkin who won convincingly at first asking just a week later. I have a feeling this runner won’t be as high as his 7/2 morning line says so if you can lock in those odds with your bookmaker, please do so. This debuting son of Uncle Mo could have a bright future.
Race 9: Sugar Fix - 2 pts win - BEST BET (US Morning Line Odds: 2/1)
The Sunshine Filly and Mare Turf is the stakes race we’ll take a look at on Gulfstream’s Saturday card. It’s run at a mile on turf for fillies and mares and has the looks of a race the racing office glued together horses from different places in order to get a competitive field. The problem with this stakes race is that almost half the field has never won over the turf and when you add up the wins the rest of the runners own over turf you get 26. And 11 of those 26 wins have come from Sugar Fix. She’s head and shoulders above these over the turf and unless a runner like Avow can wake up in a big way first time on the grass the rest are in for a long afternoon.
Best of luck to all our members playing Saturday’s races from around the U.S.!