God's Tipster's Saturday Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park Picks: 6 races with the Jerome and Queens County
Friday’s Race Recap from Gulfstream:
(All odds US)
Race replays for yesterday’s races from Gulfstream can be found here:
Race 1: 1st@ 24.60/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Race 3: 5th@ 2.10/1
Race 4: 3rd@ 4.40/1
Race 7: 1st@ 8.30/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
We didn’t wait long this year to light up the tote board as Drinking Problem made me look like a genius at 24/1 winning a race that unfolded exactly the way we had hoped it might. In Race 3, Plaisante broke fast and was gunned to the early lead as I had hoped but got a little leg weary in mid-stretch and put the cue in the rack late, fading to fifth. In Race 4, Vigil Anna was taken back to last and made a nifty move up the rail into contention by midstretch but was out-finished and had to settle for third. In Race 7, Sturdy Girl broke well and sat off an early pace battle before taking over in mid-stretch at 8/1.
It’s Saturday so we’re going to take a look at some races from both Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park. Fast and firm conditions are expected at both, although no turf racing is scheduled at Aqueduct til the springtime. Let’s get going.
Race 2: Please Be Nice - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 5/2)
Maidens bred in New York sprint 6 furlongs here and with no killers signed on from the group that has already raced I’m siding with Please Be Nice whom I think will be lower here in the States than her 5/2 morning line odds. Please Be Nice debuts for the Bill Mott Barn which is 7 for 22 (32% wins) with runners debuting in dirt sprints where the runners are also bred in New York. He has several sharp five furlong workouts on his tab which I always like to see and his December 8th workout matches I’mhavingamoment who debuted with a win and a 66 speed figure just last weekend.
Race 6: Machiavellique - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/1)
More maidens sprinting 6 furlongs and more first time starters. This time I’m siding with debuting Machiavellique who debuts for the Tom Albertrani barn. This miss is a play based on her trainer’s win percentage (3 for 16 = 19%) with an average payoff of a whopping $38.90. Chances are this runner will go off higher than her 8/1 morning line here in the US and she does have a pretty sharp four furlong drill on December 28th. The barn also has a positive win percentage with this rider.
Race 8: Andiamo a Firenze - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 6/1)
The Jerome is a one mile race for three year olds and begins the New York path to the Kentucky Derby for many horses based in the area. This year’s edition drew a strong field for an ungraded stake led by Remsen runner up Arctic Arrogance. As many of these have Derby dreams in their future and with half the field making their dirt route debut there might be a tendency to take back early to make sure they don’t burn out their Derby hopes on the first Saturday in January while seeing if they’re able to navigate a route of ground for the first time. Andiamo a Firenze is an interesting player here for that reason. He has the best early speed in the field and there’s a chance he can just speed pop them and try to take them gate to wire. But he’s also a half brother to the great Firenze Fire who won the Grade 1 Champagne, the Grade 3 Dwyer and this very race, the Jerome - all at a mile and all from just off the pace. Andiamo a Firenze is actually better bred than his older half brother was with Speightown on his paternal side. Trainer Kelly Breen has been stacking on the conditioning with five furlong workouts and I look for the Jerome to be Andiamo a Firenze’s race using new tactics from just off the pace.
Race 9: Thomas Shelby - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 10/1)
The Queens County is at a mile and an eighth for older horses and this is a race where the early pace is going to play a huge factor in the outcome. Many will assume there will be a speed dual early and the race will set up for one of the field’s many stone closers but with three main speeds in the race and maybe that’s what’ll happen but I prefer siding with a runner who will be closer to the pace and might get overlooked in the betting and that’s Thomas Shelby. In addition to being tied with Forewarned for the top speed figure earned at today’s distance, Thomas Shelby put together a remarkably consistent campaign in 2021 winning 7 of 12 starts and finishing in the money in 11 of 12. Last year he was just 1 for 8 but put up +95 speed figures in more than half of those starts. He enters this race with a chance to stalk the early pace outside of Sea Foam and I look for him to get the jump on the closers and cash a big ticket to close out our day at Aqueduct.
Race 2: Magical Warrior - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 5/1)
Allowance/Optional Claiming runners sprint 6 furlongs here and all eyes will be on the rail where Floki’s Flight breaks from as he makes his South Florida debut after a sloppy track score at Churchill Downs just three weeks after blasting maidens by nearly 15 lengths. Floki is 8/5 on the morning line and his trainer Dale Romans is just 1 for 8 over the last five years here at Gulfstream with sprinters in claiming races. I typically don’t like betting Romans outside of Kentucky so I’m siding with Magical Warrior who actually may have the stronger closing kick anyway. Trained by a 20% trainer and 2 for 3 at the distance, Magical Warrior looks to have a much more favorable pace setup for today’s race than he had last time out.
Race 4: Highland Lord - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 12/1)
Maidens go 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf here and this race gives us our third debut runner from six selections on the day. Highland Lord’s dam - Kristy With a K raced for these same connections winning 3 and hitting the board in 13 of 17 career turf starts. She’s thrown Highland Sky, a multiple stakes winner and winner of his debut, and Highland Glory who was alap stakes placed and who also won her turf debut right here at Gulfstream Park just three short years ago. Some sharp looking works on this one’s tab including one on November 26th in 47.1 on turf while breezing. These connections can connect at a big price and I’m interested in investing in Highland Lord to break his maiden at first asking.
Best of luck to all our members playing Saturday’s races from around the U.S.!