God's Tipster's Saturday Breeders' Cup Picks: Flightline, Malathaat, Modern Games, Rougir, Echo Zulu, more
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Friday’s Race Recap from Keeneland:
(All odds US)
Replays for yesterday’s Breeders’ Cup Friday from Keeneland can be found here:
Keeneland:
Race 6: 10th@ 13.50/1
Race 7: 12th@ 4.60/1
Race 8: 2nd@ 6.40/1
Race 9: 10th@ 28.90/1
Race 10: 5th@ 42.60/1
The Breeders’ Cup kicked off with the Juvenile Turf Sprint and it went to a closer as we had handicapped for, but instead of the one we selected it went to Mischief Magic. Oxymore actually broke first in the field but was taken back. That move by Jose Ortiz proved to be his undoing as these turf sprints go so quickly. He was taken ten wide entering the stretch and didn’t offer much thereafter. In the Juvenile Fillies, Chocolate Gelato stalked the early pace and had every chance to quicken in the drive but Wonder Wheel proved best. Chocolate Gelato backed up in the drive. In the Juvenile Fillies Turf there were plenty of tough trips and Irad Ortiz didn’t have the best one with our selection, Pleasant Passage but he took her from mid-pack, dropped her back to switch her out and she flew home late with a strong late rally to finish second behind Meditate who got first run on them. In the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, it was Lost Ark’s stablemate, Forte, who ruled the day. Lost Ark was never involved and was eased back to last. In the Juvenile Turf, Battle of Normandy had a decent trip til mid-stretch when he got bounced around like a pinball checking in fifth.
Friday’s Race Recap from Aqueduct:
(All odds US)
Replays for yesterday’s races from Aqueduct can be found here:
Aqueduct:
Race 1: 3rd@ 6.00/1
Race 6: 2nd@ 2.75/1
Race 10: 1st@ 3.50/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
In Race 1 at Aqueduct, Serena’s Court was taken well back in her debut effort and rallied mildly for third. In Race 6, Vax had the setup and had dead aim on Highway Harmony just could not get by her in the stretch. In Race 10, first time starter Sweetness ran to her strong breeding, went to the early lead and never looked back winning off easily at 3.50/1
The BIG day is here! Breeders’ Cup Saturday is upon us. As most of my members know, I don’t normally pick 9 races on a Saturday card but Breeders’ Cup is the exception. I’ve made some outside of the box picks so while I’m advocating for win bets, I encourage you to consider EW or across the board wagers where you’re able to lock in fair odds.
On last year’s Breeders’ Cup Saturday our selections finished:
3rd@ 0.40/1
3rd@ 28.10/1
1st@ 0.70/1
3rd@ 2.30/1
1st@ 11.30/1
3rd@ 24.90/1
3rd@ 3.60/1
2nd@ 9.50/1
3rd@ 1.90/1
A simple $2 show parlay on last year’s Breeders’ Cup Saturday selections would’ve returned $3,364.95
As of now there’s a 40% chance of rain in the forecast but I’ll be handicapping for fast and firm conditions anyway. Let’s GOOO!!
Saturday at Keeneland:
Race 3: Echo Zulu - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 6/1)
Based strictly on past performances this is an inscrutable edition of the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint with a full field of 12 evenly matched fillies and mares lining up to sprint 7 furlongs. I’m siding with Echo Zulu here for several reasons, not the least of which is trainer Steve Asmussen’s record with Grade 1 winning sprinters over the last few years. Jackie’s Warrior is one example and Mitole outrunning a juiced-to-the-gills Shancelot in the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Sprint also comes to mind. I’ve always felt Echo Zulu was more of a natural sprinter despite them throwing her into the deep end of the pool over and over again this year on her quest to win the Kentucky Oaks at 1 1/8 miles. She didn’t ace that test but has been otherwise perfect despite racing at longer distances than she’s probably preferred and the cut-back to a 7 furlong sprint at Churchill Downs gave her a chance to showcase her sprint speed. She’s a half to Grade 1 winning sprinter Echo Town out of a dam who was a Grade 2 winner at 7 furlongs and never won beyond that distance. She’ll have to do it today from post 12 but she’s a champion and I’m confident she’ll handle this assignment.
Race 4: Cazadero - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 20/1)
The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at 5 1/2 furlongs drew an international field of runners with four Irish bred runners, two bred in England and two French bred runners (that’s French bred, not French bread) along with a slew of American turf sprinters. Golden Pal had been the darling of the American sprint contingent these last two years winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint two years ago and the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint last year. I’ve never been this guy’s biggest fan and at short odds I think he’s vulnerable. Cazadero is my pick to upset this field. Out of the multiple graded stakes winning mare Wild Gams, Cazadero was an above average sprinter on dirt who’s really starting to show his quality with the move to turf. Cazadero made his turf debut on the Travers undercard and I was pulling what little hair I have left in my head out as he was off in a tangle at 8/1 then ridden non-aggressively by Tyler Gaffalione before putting forth a flying finish to just miss what would’ve been a nice score. He shipped up to Woodbine for the Grade 2 Nearctic where he was put into the race earlier and despite swinging 8 wide into the stretch he easily ran down multiple Grade 2 winning stablemate to Golden Pal, Bound for Nowhere. Trainer Brendan Walsh has won with 13 of 67 turf sprinters in stakes races over the last five years and nearly 50% of those have hit the board at an average payoff of $11.49. Top rider Flavien Prat takes the mount for a runner who won’t be on many people’s radar before the race. Here’s to hoping Cazadero is the talk of the town after Race 4 at Keeneland on Saturday.
Race 5: Simplification - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 15/1)
The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile drew a STACKED field of runners including favorite Cody’s Wish, a winner of 3 of 4 this year and Gunite, an improving three-year-old looking to defeat older horses in his first try against them. Cody’s Wish’s performance last time out is a little dressed up as he has the perfect pace scenario unfold in front of him with Jackie’s Warrior battling it out with Pipeline and he picked up the pieces. I’m also not particularly sold on Gunite getting the one mile distance facing elders for the first time but I’m siding with another three year old taking on that challenge and that’s Simplification. After a productive two year old season that saw him break his maiden by nearly 17 lengths and win the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, Simplification was thrown right into the deep end of the pool in the Triple Crown Trail. After dancing every dance on the Florida Derby trail and winning the Fountain of Youth he finished a closing fourth in the Kentucky Derby before finishing a tired sixth in the Preakness. He had a right to be tired after that campaign but he gave his all in every race. He returned with another strong third in the West Virginia Derby before forcing the pace of the Pennsylvania Derby and taking the lead turning for home before being overhauled by Breeders’ Cup Classic entrant Taiba. He only got beaten a head by Cyberknife that day. That’s the same Cyberknife that’s 9/2 on the morning line today standing 7 stalls to his right. I’m of the belief that he’s always been a miler and all of the longer races he’s been running have showcased how talented he really is. He owns this field’s top Tomlinson number for the distance of 426 and has been working up a storm in preparation for this. He should be able to tuck in behind Pipeline and Gunite early and get the jump on Cody’s Wish in the stretch. I LOVE the jockey upgrade to Luis Saez here.
Race 6: Rougir - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 12/1)
The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf at a mile and three sixteenths is another that drew its fair share of European contenders. Nashwa ships in as our 5/2 morning line favorite after just missing in the Grade 1 Prix de l’Opera on Arc day. In Italian is our 7/2 second choice hailing from the Chad Brown barn which has a knack for winning Grade 1 races with fillies and mares. I agree with the thought that Brown has the filly to beat here but I prefer 12/1 Rougir to 7/2 In Italian who’s never been this far and will likely get pace pressure up front. Of the American-based runners, Rougir has shown the strongest closing kick. Queens Plate winner Moira has her own legion of followers who think her race in the Grade 1 EP Taylor was amazing but Rougir won that race and I haven’t heard a peep about her. Even the day In Italian defeated her in the Grade 1 Diana at Saratoga, the race didn’t have much pace aside from In Italian and when it came time for her finishing move, she wasn’t able to make up enough ground. Today she gets back to her ideal distance and gets Flavien Prat aboard. I’d be looking for her to make the final move in the stretch after overhauling her stablemate.
Race 7: O Besos - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 20/1)
The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint at 6 furlongs is supposed to be the swan song for the great Jackie’s Warrior. A winner of 12 of 17 lifetime starts and 5 Grade 1’s, he’s truly had a brilliant career. With all of that being said I’ve spent all 17 career starts looking for ways to beat him and at likely short odds you know I’ll be trying to upend him into retirement. If Jackie’s Warrior were to lose (as he did when heavily favored in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint when we defeated him with Aloha West), we’d need some pace pressure for him. Last time out, Pipeline played that role and set the table for Cody’s Wish to upset. There are a few stalkers who may use their stalking speed to press and that’s what I’m banking on. O Besos is my selection here. If a pace battle were to develop, O Besos would be the greatest beneficiary as he owns the strongest closing kick in this field by a wide margin. Much like our selection of Echo Zulu earlier in today’s card, O Besos has spent much of his career racing at distances too long for him and he’s still run well enough to be graded stakes placed and has even run fifth in the Kentucky Derby. That’s what good horses do. In my opinion he’s a far better sprinter and now he’s just beginning to show it. Last time out he ran down a stubborn foe at this distance and while that $100k optional claiming race is a far cry from the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, the way he imposed his will on that field was what I was most impressed by. His final two 1/8 of a mile splits were 11.65 and 11.82. In a quick comparison to Aloha West’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint winning run last year of 11.94 and 11.74 it says he belongs. His odds will be GIGANTIC as he is on nobody’s radar and his connections are low profile but I really think he deserves a long look here in the event Jackie’s Warrior gives up the ghost again.
Race 8: Modern Games - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 7/2)
This was the easiest race for me to handicap That’s because after I watched Modern Games’ effort in the Woodbine Mile I realized everyone else was running for second. He absolutely manhandled Ivar and Shirl’s Speight who are Grade 1 winners in their own right and did it with plenty left in the tank. Thank you trainer Charlie Appleby for saving me a few more hours of handicapping work. Modern Games’ 112 speed figure put up that day would be plenty good enough to win this and Appleby has done a fantastic job shipping runners over and winning U.S. races over the last few years. If he loses I’ll happily take the “L” and move on to our next Modern Game.
Race 9: Malathaat - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 3/1)
The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Distaff is next up on the docket. A mile and an eighth on dirt for fillies and mares and of the “core four” morning line favorites, this race has the most evenly matched field of the day to my eye. Last year’s Distaff pace was meltdown-fast and while this year’s pace doesn’t look like it’ll be as fast as last year’s, I don’t think it’ll be slow enough for Society to steal it on the front end. I think it comes down to who runs the fastest final 1/8th of a mile and to me that boils it down to Clairiere and Malathaat. These two have raced against one another a total of seven times in their careers with Malathaat finishing in front of her rival in five of those seven starts. Once I dug into the trainer stats for this race it solidified my case for Malathaat as her trainer, Todd Pletcher, is 5 for 15 with Grade One route races on dirt here at Keeneland over the last five years. Steve Asmussen, trainer of Clairiere is 0 for 16 with only two “in the money” finishes. Malathaat in front at the wire!
Race 10: Stone Age - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 15/1)
The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf at a mile and a half is our penultimate Breeders’ Cup race of the afternoon and thirteen runners will battle for supremacy. Oftentimes these long distance turf races come down to whomever has the strongest closing kick but I don’t see very much speed signed on here so I’m looking for someone who’s going to be on or near the pace. Stone Age checks that box along with a few others. Trained by the great Aidan O’Brien and ridden by the barn’s main rider, Ryan Moore, this barn also sends out last year’s runner up in this race, Broome whom Irad Ortiz was tabbed to ride. That vote of confidence by the stables top rider is another feather in his cap but what I like most about this runner are his two most recent starts. Most U.S. handicappers will look at his two U.S. races and think he doesn’t fit but since those two starts, Stone Age has run back-to-back new career best races, both in losing efforts at a slightly shorter distance. Stone Age was sent off at 28/1 and 40/1 in those last two starts but it speaks to the caliber of competition he faced and I think he’s coming into this race as a major sleeper for dangerous connections.
Race 11: Flightline - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 3/5)
The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic is the heavyweight championship on this weekend of champions as 8 millionaires line up to race a mile and a quarter. One of the greatest joys in this game is when a field of brilliant runners makes it to the starting gate to prove who’s best. We can talk all day about the contenders in this race but my commentary begins and ends with Flightline. Breathtakingly brilliant in five career starts. His most recent start was his first try at a mile and a quarter and he won by a mere 19 1/4 lengths over this year’s Dubai World Cup winner, Country Grammer. Maybe he stubs his toe coming out of the starting gate or maybe he gets a tough trip and things don’t work out for him. I know he’s only had five races but in the 29 years I’ve been following horses and the +100,000 past performances I’ve pored through I have never seen as impressive a past performance line as Flightline’s. I’m hoping he continues his ascent to all time great and look forward to an amazing horse race. Enjoy!
****As a service to my members who may be playing the entire race card, I am listing a few additional picks for Keeneland’s Breeders’ Cup card for Saturday. Since I am graded on ROI and profit here on Betting Gods, I’m not making these races a part of my usual daily selections (there are no 1 point win bets listed here). These are just “bonus” opinions.
Keeneland:
Race 1: Arabian Knight - (US Morning Line Odds: 2/1)
Race 2: Messier - (US Morning Line Odds: 4/1)
Race 12: Wakanaka - (US Morning Line Odds: 12/1)
As always here’s wishing our members the very best of luck betting Breeders’ Cup Saturday from Keeneland!