God's Tipster's Friday Breeders' Cup Picks: All 10 races on the Keeneland card plus 3 races from Aqueduct
Thursday’s Race Recap from Delaware Park:
(All odds US)
Replays for yesterday’s races from Delaware Park can be found here:
Race 1: 1st@ 2.50/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Race 3: 5th@ 1.70/1
In Race 1 at Delaware our 8/1 morning line selection Coronova was bet down to 5/2 odds here in the U.S. and that proved to be smart money as she won by 5 in her debut. In Race 3 Goshen was going first time dirt and chased wide before flattening out late.
It’s Breeders’ Cup Friday and we’ve got racing action from both Keeneland and Aqueduct. Fast and firm conditions are expected at both venues with sunny skies.
Let’s get right to the action !
Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland:
Race 6: Oxymore - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/1)
The weekend’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup action begins with the Juvenile Turf Sprint at 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf. We’ve got a slew of runners shipping in from Europe who look like quality animals but I’m siding with a runner who won for our members on debut back in July at 11/1 odds and that runner is Oxymore. In that debut effort, Oxymore practically sprouted wings in the stretch winning off by 6 1/2 lengths in 1:07.4. Certainly not a typical winning margin in a 6 furlong turf sprint. After being purchased privately by his current connections, he transferred to the barn of super-turf trainer Chad Brown who entered him in a stakes race at Saratoga where he once again set a rapid pace and was actually passed in the stretch briefly but battled back for the win. His most recent start was an unorthodox approach by Brown to prepare for a Grade 1 sprint - stretching him to a mile at Monmouth Park. That day he showed the ability to rate off a much slower pace and while he lost by 1/2 length as the odds-on favorite, he lost nothing in defeat in my eyes. Good horses lose sometimes and very good horses battle back when they’re passed in the lane and battle gamely when pushed to distances beyond their capabilities. I love the turn-back to a sprint and with all the speed signed on here he might just get the perfect stalking trip right off the speed.
Race 7: Chocolate Gelato - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 7/2)
The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies drew a full field of 14 with Chocolate Gelato installed as our 7/2 morning line favorite. She debuted on opening day at Saratoga this year going off as an odds-on favorite and disappointing her backers finishing third. She redeemed herself next time out with an emphatic 8 1/2 length win second time out giving her a speed figure of 92 which is far and away the best speed figure in this field. That race earned her a start in the Grade 1 Frizette where she raced over a sloppy Aqueduct surface. She showed the ability to stalk the early pace that day, made her move on the far turn and turned back a stubborn foe in You’re My Girl. Top connections surround this runner and I just think she lays over this field.
Race 8: Pleasant Passage - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 12/1)
The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf is run at a mile on the lawn and once again we’ve got a bevy of European invaders taking on the Americans. Pleasant Passage is an overlaid 12/1 on the morning line after reeling off two straight wins to start her career. Top rider Irad Ortiz takes the mount for Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey. In her debut effort at Saratoga at a mile and a sixteenth (not an easy distance to debut at) she demonstrated supreme professionalism while diving down towards the inside. She was passed by Letter of Gold only to battle back gamely for the win. Last time out she was disrespected once again in the Miss Grillo as the public sent her off at nearly 10/1 odds. She made them pay as she went to the front and fought gamely the entire length of the stretch while holding the two favorites sway over a yielding surface. 12/1 morning line sounds just fine to me. She’s been working up a storm in the mornings and should work out the perfect trip while near the pace with her post.
Race 9: Lost Ark - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 20/1)
The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at a mile and a sixteenth is the unofficial start to next year’s Kentucky Derby watch. Cave Rock will be all the rage at the betting windows and is 4/5 on the morning line. I’m taking a stand against him though as the dam side of his pedigree is awfully sprint-looking with neither his dam nor his siblings ever winning at a distance beyond 6 1/2 furlongs. Yeah, I get that he won his last start at today’s distance but he’ll face more pace pressure today and I’m siding with a closer named Lost Ark to pick up the pieces. I fell in love with Lost Ark when he won the Sapling at Monmouth on August 27. That day he stalked the early pace and exploded in the stretch, drawing away with long and powerful strides. Based on that effort I picked him in the Grade 1 Breeders Futurity but he steadied and checked and raced greenly through the stretch. He’s one of only three in here with a race over the Keeneland surface. He picks up jockey Luis Saez who does an exceptional job for this barn. From a breeding standpoint Lost Ark is bred to run all day. He’s a half to Grade 1 winners: Nest and Idol and if he can get a cleaner trip today he might get to add his own name to the list of Grade 1 winners.
Race 10: Battle of Normandy - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 20/1)
The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf is our final race of the day and it’s run at a mile on turf. It’s hard to get a great read on anyone here as our favorites on the morning line include European invaders and a west coast runner. West coast runners don’t typically do well in this race. We’ve got a 5/1 morning line choice named Andthewinneris but the interesting thing is that the 20/1 shot I like actually defeated him the last time they raced. Battle of Normandy is my pick for this race. He cost $500k so there are some expectations here. He won at first asking which is a little unusual for this barn who tends to take their time with their horses. Second time out he had a tough trip in the stretch and should’ve really won the Grade 3 With Anticipation as he was off heels and got pocketed behind the winner. I like the rider change from Kendrick Carmouche to Jose Lezcano and think Battle of Normandy could blow up a lot of pick 5 tickets as the final leg of that bet on Breeders Cup opening day.
Friday at Aqueduct:
Race 1: Serena’s Court - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 9/2)
Tough-looking little group of two year old fillies that lines up to race a mile and four of the six runners will be making their career debut. In these 1 mile two-year-old races I really put a lot of stock in runners with five furlong workouts. Since October 1, there are only two runners with any five furlong workouts and they are: Accidental Icon and our selection, Serena’s Court. Accidental Icon may be a talented runner as well but she’s got four 5 furlong drills compared to Serena’s Court’s eight and her trainer, Bill Mott has a 4% win percentage with runners debuting at a mile or longer. And YES you read that right! EIGHT five furlong workouts since August 30 for the debuting Serena’s Court. Trainer Christophe Clement wins at an impressive 19% with runners making their debut at a mile or longer on dirt with an average payoff of $11.57. This runner’s sire and dam both won their career debut and she’s a half sister to debut winners and multiple graded stakes winning Coup de Grace.
Race 6: Vax - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/1)
New York bred maidens sprint 6 furlongs in this event for two year old fillies. Highway Harmony is a very real candidate to go off favored here based on a sharp second place finish on debut but that race was on turf and this barn is 0 for 11 with runners going turf to dirt in their second career start with only one runner hitting the board of those 11 (and a few at short prices). We’ll take a pass on the heavy favorite and take a stab with Vax, who, like Highway Harmony, was also heavily supported at the betting windows in her debut with decidedly worse results. I’m giving her a free pass on that debut though over a sloppy track as she swished her tail through the lane with each crop strike from her rider. This barn wins with 18% of runners making their second career start and has two five furlong works since that race. Both of those works match up with her stablemate and 13/1 upset winner of the Maid of the Mist Stakes last Sunday Les Bon Temps with a scintillating speed figure (for this group) of 81. In her most recent workout she actually out-worked Les Bon Temps so I’m a little excited to see what this one can do second time out.
Race 10: Sweetness - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 3/1)
Two-year-old maiden fillies bred in New York race a mile and a sixteenth on turf. Once again I’m siding with a first time starter, this time from the barn of Jorge Abreu who wins at a 15% clip with his runners debuting on turf at an average payoff of $18.52. Sweetness was sired by Oscar Performance who’s first crop is just hitting the track this year. To his credit so far he’s sired runners who have won or placed in six graded stakes on turf from only a handful of runners to start. This one’s dam, Shea Darby, has thrown three turf winners including Shawdyshawdyshawdy, who won his debut for these connections on turf, and Shady Shady Shady, who won her second career start. Precocity is in the bloodlines and I look forward to seeing this runner make her debut.
*****As a service to my members who may be playing the entire race card, I am listing a few additional picks for Keeneland’s Breeders’ Cup card for Friday. Since I am graded on ROI and profit here on Betting Gods, I’m not making these races a part of my usual daily selections (there are no 1 point win bets listed here). These are just “bonus” opinions.
Race 1: Open Road (US Morning Line Odds: 3/1)
Race 2: Indy Again (US Morning Line Odds: 30/1)
Race 3: Pro Oxidant - (US Morning Line Odds: 8/1)
Race 4: Giant Mischief - (US Morning Line Odds: 8/1)
Race 5: Win the Day - (US Morning Line Odds: 6/1)
Best of luck to all our members playing Breeders’ Cup weekend !!