God's Tipster's Friday Keeneland Pick: In the 7th, a maiden special weight, 2yo fillies race a turf route
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Thursday’s Race Recap from Belmont at Aqueduct:
(All odds US)
Replays for yesterday’s races from Belmont at Aqueduct can be found here:
Belmont at Aqueduct:
Race 2: 3rd@ 6.30/1
Race 6: 1st@ 36.00/1 💥💥💥💥💥
Race 7: 2nd@ 10.20/1
In Race 2, Tactical Range stalked 2 wide but wasn’t able to keep up with the top two in the stretch fading to third. In Race 6 we connected in a BIG way as Game Theory went off at 36/1 here in the Stakes off an already overlaid 15/1 morning line to win by six lengths. Thanks to all the members who reached out to me on Twitter to tell me they made money here. Reading those comments is truly the most rewarding part of my job! In Race 7, Bern Rosey Bern tried to give us back to back longshot wins but had to settle for a 10/1 second place finish behind a runaway-winning odds-on favorite.
So here’s the thing… The stats say that we do better at Aqueduct than Keeneland but earlier this week I downloaded and handicapped Keeneland’s Friday card. That was before we got our clocks cleaned on Wednesday there. Rather than rush-handicap Aqueduct’s Friday card I’ll move forward with my Keeneland selections for Friday but tread lightly as Keeneland has been a tricky place to handicap. With that, let’s move back to Keeneland for Friday’s races Fast and firm conditions are expected. Let’s get started!
Race 7: Paint Me Perfect - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 15/1)
Two-year-old fillies race a mile and a sixteenth on the lawn in this maiden special weight race where none of the runners who have raced on turf before have inspired much confidence and two-year-olds on turf can be a squirrelly division as it is, so sometimes pays to seek value in spots like these. Paint Me Perfect races here for the low profile barn of Steve Margolis whose win percentage doubles to 16% in 212 starts over the last five years on turf. Funny thing is that when he trains for these owners with turf runners he wins at a scintillating 26%, winning with 22 of 84 runners with an “in-the-money” percentage of 51% at a $2 ROI of $3.37. This runner is sired by Munnings who’s a strong turf influence and her dam won three in a row on turf and couldn’t run a lick on dirt. Her one start on dirt wasn’t pretty but if she’s anything like her dam she’ll improve with the surface switch.
Best of luck to all our members playing Friday’s races from Keeneland!