RT Picks the Thursday Churchill Downs Early Pick 3 with maidens and claimers running at twilight
RT’s Spot Plays
09.29.22
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Early Pick 3 at Churchill
I am going to play a $24 ticket today
Churchill Downs Race 1 - $50K Maiden Claiming
3yo+ Fillies and Mares going 8.5 furlongs
This is an all button play for several reasons – there is little talent in this field, and I am hoping to catch a price; Ellis shippers have been lousy at CD, thus making 2-Reina Bella (5/2) and 4-Frosty Diva (10/1) suspect plays; 1-Tequila Empire (2/1) ships from Lone Star, is off Lasix, goes from turf to dirt (which all two year olds are a big question mark as to their adaptability), and is likely at low odds due to its trainer, Diodoro. This race is a total tossup.
Churchill Downs Race 2 - $50K Claiming N2L
3yo’s↑ going 8.5 furlongs
Eliminating a few in this race by sheer virtue of percentages, I start with one favorite, 3-Galerio (2/1). Trainer Norm Cash is 0% with horses off 2-6 months. Although he has been working well, his claim last out at Laurel for $50K and entering today after five months of being off, looms dubious. Why transport this horse from Maryland to Kentucky, then pay its expenses for this long of a time frame, only to attempt breaking even in the claim money? They could have found other spots at home. 5-Sugoi (6/1) is another 0% trainer for 6+ months with Mike Tomlinson. Furthermore, of his five wins, only one has been on dirt and that was an allowance at Will Rogers in April of 2020. 4-My Sixth Sense (5/1) has gone off form and not posted a decent speed number since May. Additionally, he has been beat by a combined 62 lengths this year. This leaves my choices of 1-Palace Coup (7/2) and 2-Spa City (8/5) which have solid numbers against better competition.
Churchill Downs Race 3 - $92K Restricted Maiden Special
2yo’s going one mile
Cannot see playing a single on 2-Janis Joplin (4/5) yet will include her on the ticket. 4-Basilica D Oro (20/1) is a pass due to her three races of poor effort. I am also excluding 7-Cotton Candy Andy (7/2) whom, out of four races, has yet to score a greater number than 68 in Equibase speed figures. Today’s 81 is too imposing, and I will look for her to drop to mcl next. I will pick up the rest to see if a price can be caught.