God's Tipster's Saturday Monmouth Park and Gulfstream Park Picks: 3 races, two tracks, fairly-priced runners
Friday’s Race Recap from Delaware Park:
(All odds US)
Replays for yesterday’s races from Delaware Park can be found here:
Race 4: 1st@ 0.05/1 - BEST BET🔥🔥🔥
Race 5: 4th@ 8.90/1
Race 6: 4th@ 5.40/1
Race 7: 1st@ 0.70/1 🔥🔥🔥
In Race 4 we had 6/5 morning line favorite, Superstitieux as a “can’t lose” winner and he came through as promised. Here in the U.S. he went off at 1/9 odds and was the easiest kind of winner. The turf courses must be in bad shape because it hasn’t rained in a few days and we’re still off the turf. Unfortunately that did in our Race 5 selection, Chief’s Kingdom, where after a stumbling start she wasn’t able to get back on track and checked in fourth. In Race 6, Ekati’s Verve was the main closer of the field. The problem was that the speed all took back and set a dawdling pace so he finished fourth after rallying only mildly. In Race 7 we were off the turf again and Sovereign Change went to the lead from the start and withstood constant pace pressure from Grunder’s Call and just would not be denied giving us two wins on the day, albeit shorter-priced winners here in the U.S.. My hope is that our European members locked in 6/5 and 3/1 morning line odds on the runners we got 1/9 and 3/5 on in the US.
I took a look at four tracks from around the US for Saturday as we wait for Aqueduct to open later this week on the New York circuit. I didn’t like Delaware’s card and Kentucky Downs is inscrutable between the huge, evenly matched fields and the questionable weather. We do have fast and firm conditions expected at Gulfstream Park and the same at Monmouth Park. I have one selection for the Gulfstream card and two for Monmouth.
Here are the plays:
Race 7: Laloba Feroz - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 4/1)
Maiden claimers race a mile here and this is a pretty rough-looking group overall. What a Corker will probably have company on the front end in the presence of Love My Job and I’m going with Laloba Feroz to pick up the pieces. A runner up in 5 of 13 starts already, Loloba Feroz has never gone to post at odds any lower than 3/1 despite knocking on the door so many times. Much of her recent form has come in the form of polytrack and turf racing but she ran a smart second in an off the turf event on April 30 at Tampa. That day she didn’t exactly have a wickedly fast pace to close into but still closed quite well. Looks like the class of the field. 4/1 offers value.
Race 5: Strike Price - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 4/1)
Maiden claimers run a mile and a sixteenth on turf in this one. We’ve got a full field signed on so that should help keep our price fair. Trainer Bill Morey is winning at 19% this year as Strike Price races for the second time for this barn after previously running for George Weaver. Last time out Strike Price faced better at Saratoga in a race where two runners have returned and both improved their speed figures in their next start. One by 10 points and another by 4 points. I’m that race, Strike Price basically just ran around the track and was never really given much of an opportunity to show his best. The race looked like a conditioner to me. This trainer wins with 24% of his runners making their second start off similar layoffs.
Race 11: Lay The Groundwork (US Morning Line Odds: 7/2)
Allowance runners close out our day in this turf race for fillies and mares. Lay the Groundwork races for the Chad Brown barn (28% winners at Monmouth) and is lined at a generous 7/2. Most runners for this barn go off at much lower odds in spots like these but yet form is a little muddied up after losing her last at odds on favoritism. She was however steadied at the start that day and rallied late. She should be much better prepared for today’s race and as long as she’s given the right trip should be able to handle these.
Best of luck to all our members playing Saturday’s races from Gulfstream Park & Monmouth!