RT's Sunday Saratoga Pick is the Spinaway for 2yo fillies, and he's got the speed figures to back his choice
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Saratoga R11|Post Time: 6:11 pm EDT
The Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes
Dirt 7 Furlongs|2YO Fillies |Purse: $300K
Ten hopeful Kentucky Oaks fillies go off this afternoon in the Spinaway and this is a case of disparity in Beyer numbers and Equibase numbers.
Beyer pars for stakes race 2yo’s at Saratoga are nonexistent, according to the DRF, so the best gauge for a few in this race are MSW fillies at Saratoga, which that par is 74. The fillies who broke their maiden here are 1-Kaling (7/2, 77 Beyer) 6-Leave No Trace (8/1, 77 Beyer), and 10-American Rockette (6/1, 70 Beyer). None of these three have yet to run again, so, as normal, improvement can be expected. That said, I am going to toss Kaling, considering her Equibase par was a 79 and her 77 did not exceed par as American Rockette and Leave No Trace did. 2-Miss Georgie (30/1, 49 Beyer), won at Laurel where their par is 60 for 2yo fillies in an MSW race. Given her 49 Beyer number at Laurel against the 60 par, although her 75 Equibase score, makes her a toss. 3-Apple Picker (30/1) exits the Adirondack Stakes at this course on August 7. Two horses have exited that race and have since run, with one of them in a vastly improved score and the other, Janis Joplin, put in a poor effort on turf yesterday at Kentucky Downs. Her 47 Beyer and 58 Equibase numbers, plus her debut win at Belmont of a 61 Beyer versus a 75 par, plus the idiom that winners keep winning, makes her a toss. 4-Naughty Gal (8/1) broke her maiden at second asking with a 75 Beyer versus a 68 par at Churchill. She shipped to Saratoga and won the Adirondack in gate to wire fashion, only getting a 68 Beyer, and an 80/87 Equibase score. Prior to her win in the Adirondack, she did not put in zinger works, so her :49 work of late is not concerning. I came into this excited to see her race and myself and The Coach talked about her a couple of times at Churchill, and I became a fan. However, after doing some research of Into Mischief 2yo fillies, with this number of stakes and times between races, she is up against it. Exotics play. 8-Aunt Shirley (5/1) broke her maiden at Ellis, where that Beyer par is 66 and she was given a 75; making her a contender. Toss in the fact that Irad Ortiz jumped ship from 5-Just Cindy (5/1), and this makes her more compelling. Just Cindy is likely to take a lot of money given her sire is Justify, which given his 50% stakes record thus far in his breeding freshman season, is a buying signal. Her two works at Keeneland have been solid, so expect her to be in the mix. 9-Wonder Wheel (3/1) has every reason to be the favorite with her 2/2 record in big time fashion. As I have written before, two-year-olds that are on their third race and their second stakes race being the winner, they are an awful 5/45 over the last eighteen months. 10-American Rockette (6/1) was rained off the turf in her debut and scored a win, putting up a 70 Beyer versus a 74 par. Her 80 Equibase number against a 77 par bodes well, yet I am reticent to pull the trigger on a horse originally intended for turf and returning to a second dirt try. 7-Sabra Tuff (20/1) has put up three low 70’s Equibase scores and the same type of Beyers. With no improvement from race over race, she is a toss.
My choice is 6-Leave No Trace (8/1), with the best last Equibase number and co-best last Beyers. She worked a :59.7 on 8/21 and trainer Philip Serpe has been fire lately with 29% wins and is 36% with Jose Lezcano. Sire Outwork 2/3 with 2yo fillies in their second race being a stakes.