God's Tipster's Thursday Saratoga Pick: The 9th, The Riskaverse for 3yo fillies, has a longshot worth the risk

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Wednesday’s Race Recap from Saratoga:

(All odds US)

Race replays for yesterday’s races from Saratoga can be found here:

Saratoga:

Race 2: 7th@ 2.95/1

Race 3: 3rd@ 0.90/1

Race 9: 4th@ 5.10/1

They rained everything off the turf after rain storms on Monday and Tuesday but the main track was fast. Our opening race was Race 2 where August Bloom stalked the early pace in her debut but had nothing left for the stretch drive and faded to seventh. In Race 3 I was reminded why I don’t usually bet George Weaver-trained horses as Tommy Gun stalked the 5/2 choice as the odds on favorite and finished an uninspiring third. Lesson once again learned! In Race 9, we were rained off the turf and that left us with a field of six runners. None of which had a win or even a runner up finish on the main track. Ocean’s Map raced in third for most of the way before tiring to fourth.

Ugly day with our debut runner not running, Tommy Gun never firing and the feature race being rained off the turf not really giving us much of a chance there.

Thursday once again features a ten race card at Saratoga. We’re hoping for fast and firm conditions with perfectly mild temperatures. After looking at this card I see several longshot possibilities. Let’s get to work!

Thursday at Saratoga:

Race 9: Missy Greer - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 15/1)

The Riskaverse at a mile on the inner turf for 3yo fillies is the day’s feature race and as I’ve been saying, the inner turf course at Saratoga has been kind to inside speed all meet. Last time out we had Missy Greer at nearly 21/1 where she nearly stole the show leading all the way on this very course before getting caught late and only losing by 1 1/2 lengths. This is her second start off a layoff (a 26% winning angle for this barn) and once again she drew an inside post position which should complement her running style perfectly. There’s not a ton of other early speed signed on here and if they leave her alone for too long on the lead she could be long gone at 15/1 odds.

Best of luck to everyone playing Thursday’s races from Saratoga!