God's Tipster's Saturday Saratoga Picks: Three races including a longshot, a possible turf star, The Jim Dandy
Friday’s Race Recap from Saratoga:
(All odds US)
Race replays for yesterday’s races from Saratoga can be found here:
Race 1: 6th@ 6.40/1
Race 3: 3rd@ 1.15/1
Race 7: 2nd@ 10.90/1
Race 10: 5th@ 6.00/1
In Race 1, Internal Capital went to the lead but had nothing left for the drive in his dirt debut and faded to last. In Race 3, Insignia stalked a loose Fingal’s Cave and took a run at her on the far turn only to be rebuffed by the eventual winner. In Race 7, Artorious was much the best winning off as Gilded Age made a huge run for second at almost 11/1 odds. In Race 10, Rosemary Potatoes stalked and had aim on the leaders at the top of the stretch but flattened out.
A forgettable day overall with no winners but an 11/1 second place in the Curlin Stakes and a third place finish in Race 3.
Let’s focus our attention on Saturday’s races from Saratoga. We’re expecting fast and firm conditions beneath sunny skies. Let’s get to work.
Saturday at Saratoga:
Race 6: Missy Greer - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 12/1)
Members blessed with a good memory might remember we picked this little miss on opening day and she ran off before the race. It’s nice to see her back. Three year old fillies navigate a mile and a sixteenth in this allowance race I’m siding with a 12/1 shot who may just get a free pass on the lead. In a race almost completely devoid of early pace, Missy Greer enters here dropping in class from the Grade 2 Black Eyed Susan, run on the Preakness Eve undercard. That was a legitimately tough field of three year old fillies and Missy Greer was overmatched but she strikes me as more of a turf runner anyway. In her career debut she finished a strong second while racing on turf to Mischievous Kiss who went on to win a Stakes on turf in her next start and then place in two more stakes after that, finishing third behind Spendarella who may be the best three year old turf filly in the country. Next time out she faded as the favorite but she was then given time off so maybe something went wrong or maybe she just needed time to mature. She returned at Gulfstream to break her maiden on the main track. She moves back to the turf today with a few solid workouts and gets Lasix again. Kendrick Carmouche is in the irons for a trainer who wins with 24% of his turf starters. Furthermore, this runner is a half to Gronkowski who finished second in the Belmont Stakes and missed winning the Dubai World Cup by a nose so the distance should be no issue at all.
Race 9: Zandon - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 2/1)
A compact field of four lines up for the Grade 2 Jim Dandy. This is traditionally a prep for the Travers and it drew a field that might be small but is certainly not without talent. Chad Brown trains half the field and he appears to have the top early speed runner in Early Voting and the top closer in the field in Zandon. Epicenter, who might be best of all will have to go with Early Voting to give him any chance here and that would set the race up for Zandon, who won the Blue Grass and was third in the Kentucky Derby. From an end of the year perspective, it might be more important for Epicenter to defeat Early Voting here as that one won the Preakness and both would be considered top contenders for top three year old honors. While Zandon does own a win in the Blue Grass, not having a Triple Crown win on his resume may actually make him a very appealing third choice in this field of four.
Race 10: Capensis - 2 pts win - BEST BET (US Morning Line Odds: 2/1)
It’s common these days to get excited about a debut runner as everyone’s already looking for next year’s Kentucky Derby winner. Capensis bring a different kind of excitement. Already past the age for Kentucky Derby glory, this $2.2 million purchase made his debut on turf. Contrarians like me said: for that kind of money, why would they start him on turf? He’s probably no good. Boy was I wrong. He could not have been more impressive winning with a final fraction for the mile and a sixteenth in a wicked fast 27.85 seconds. If he runs back to his debut he will win. If he improves off his debut he’ll win even more impressively. I’m excited for what the future holds for Capensis.
Best of luck to everyone playing Saturday’s races from Saratoga!