Nest, winning the Demoiselle at Aqueduct in December, in the pick today in the Caching Club American Oaks.
Nest, winning the Demoiselle at Aqueduct in December, in the pick today in the Caching Club American Oaks.NYRA

God's Tipster's Saturday Saratoga and Monmouth Park Picks: 8 races including CCA Oaks, Molly Pitcher, Haskell

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God's Tipster is the Betting God's US Racing expert.
God's Tipster is the Betting God's US Racing expert.Betting Gods

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Friday’s Race Recap from Saratoga:

(All odds US)

Replays for yesterday’s races from Saratoga can be found here:


Race 4: 1st@ 8.60/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Race 6: 1st@ 2.90/1 BEST BET 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Race 8: 6th@ 4.00/1

It’s always great to start the day with a win and Rombique, expertly ridden by Jalon Samuel, was taken back early and came with the most momentum in the stretch to get up for the 8/1 win! (Hopefully some of you locked in 15/1 odds on the morning line with your bookmakers in the UK). In Race 6, our BEST BET, Ria’s Angel stalked, pounced and drew away for an easy win at 9/5 odds here in the US. In Race 8, Kokopelli was given a dream trip by Joel Rosario and cut the corner turning for home and flattened out with no excuses.

On Saturday we have an eleven race card at Saratoga as well as a fourteen race card at Monmouth Park for the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational. Plenty of exciting racing to get to so let’s not waste any more time. Fast, firm and HOT conditions are expected at both Saratoga and Monmouth:

Saturday at Saratoga:

Race 1: Wideright - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 15/1)

Two year old races over the inner turf at Saratoga are some of the more unpredictable racing events you’ll find anywhere so it doesn’t usually pay to take a short price. I’m taking a shot with Wideright here for trainer Bill Mott who’s underrated with first time starters in these two year old route races. While he doesn’t always win, he hits the board nearly half the time with his two year old first time starters in turf routes and his average win payout is $28.60. Mott’s main guy, Junior Alvarado rides this one and this one is a half to a two time turf winner who’s career best speed figure was at a mile. Sire, Uncle Mo is also underrated as a turf route sire winning with 15% of those. Strong Tomlinson figure completes the 15/1 package.

Race 3: Jane Grey - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 7/2)

Fillies and mares sprint 6 furlongs and Repealing is our 7/5 morning line favorite here. It’s tough to knock her after her 3 1/2 length win at Churchill Downs but I’m going to do it anyway. Of the 8 runners who have returned from that effort, 5 have regressed on the speed figure scale. She’ll also have pace pressure in this from a few of these including our second choice on the morning line, Breakfastatbonnies. Rather than taking 7/5 on her I’d rather take twice the odds (at least) on Jane Grey who’s 7/2 on the morning line. Jane Grey broke her maiden in her debut here two years ago making her one of only two runners in here with a win over the Saratoga surface. She ran well off the nearly two year layoff last time out but finished second as the favorite. Trainer Bill Mott wins at a 25% rate with runners returning for the second time off a break or over 180 days and this time they remove Lasix that she had in her most recent start. She won without it as a two year old here so let’s hope history repeats itself.

Race 4: Veronica Greene - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 5/1)

Three year old fillies run a mile on the inner turf. There are a few in here that had tough trips last time out but I’m going with the new face of the group, Veronica Greene for trainer Chad Brown who’s gotten off to a red-hot start at the Saratoga meet. Brown does well overall but he excels with three year old fillies on the turf at Saratoga winning at 27%. Veronica Greene’s dam never raced on dirt and was a two time stakes winner over the lawn in her six race career. Irad Ortiz is Brown’s main rider and adds to the appeal of this runner who may get a little overlooked in the wagering with her muddied up dirt form.

Race 5: Nest - 1 pt win - (US Morning Line Odds: 1/1)

Maybe some racing historian will prove me wrong but I’m wondering if the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks is the first time two fillies will square off in a Grade 1 race immediately after running in Triple Crown races, traditionally targeted by three year old colts. This one drew a field that's short on runners but long on quality as the Grade 1 winning Nest, who won the Ashland at Keeneland before placing in the Kentucky Oaks and Belmont Stakes squares off against Secret Oath who defeated Nest in the Kentucky Oaks before finishing fourth in the Preakness against the boys. I know that Secret Oath ran huge to win the Kentucky Oaks and yes, she was our Preakness selection and ran huge that day to be fourth after checking sharply and racing wide. But Nest’s second place finish in the 1 1/2 mile Belmont Stakes was just outstanding and it led me to believe the best is yet to come from this one. Nest’s trip in the Kentucky Oaks wasn’t perfect and I think with a better trip today she’ll turn the tables on Secret Oath in what should be a stellar renewal of the CCA Oaks.

Race 6: Summonyourcourage - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 4/1)

Man oh man, blue-blooded two year old maiden races are one of my very favorite things about the summertime. Plenty of first time starters lined up here and they’ll attract money based on backstretch rumors and workout reports. More often than not these races are won by a runner with experience, no matter how limited that experience may be. Summonyourcourage is a $500k purchase with two starts under his belt already which is two more starts than 7 of today’s 10 runners have and puts him at the top with the most experience. In his most recent start, this runner finished a strong, closing second to Mo Strike and was getting to that one. Mo Strike returned to win last Saturday’s feature race here, the Sanford where he defeated a field of 11 other runners. Experience + Class + Strong connections = Winner’s Circle.

Race 11: Seaver - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 20/1)

We bookend the Saratoga card with bombs as we look to close out the day with Seaver, named for the great New York Mets pitcher who recently passed away. This is a starter allowance race at a mile and a sixteenth on the inner turf and lots of times these races are won by inside speed runners. Seaver, who is stretching out from sprint races for the first time, should be fast enough to get that inside position. After losing all chance at the start in his debut, he won at odds of nearly 18/1 to break his maiden at second asking. Trainer Tim Hills can win with long shots stretching on turf as he owns a 23% win record (3 for 13) and a 62% in the money record (8 for 13) with turf stretch outs on the New York circuit over the last five years with an average payout of $25.87. Bombs away to end the day!

Saturday at Monmouth Park:

Race 10: Bonny South - 2 pts win - BEST BET (US Morning Line Odds: 3/1)

BEST BET Time! Today’s Grade 3 Molly Pitcher on the Monmouth Park undercard drew a solid field of 7 with 5 stakes winners. None of those have been more accomplished than the two morning line favorites: Search Results and Bonny South who are both millionaires separated by only $2,600 in earnings. That’s a pretty wild statistic considering Search Results has run 9 times and Bonny South has run 16. Search Results should have some company up front in this one and I’m going to side with our likely second choice, Bonny South here. Bonny South has a bit of an “always a bridesmaid” reputation but she’s been facing some of the best in her class and performed admirably. Today she faces a weaker group and with the likely pace battle between Search Results and other speeds signed on here, Bonny South should also get a favorable setup.

Race 12: Cyberknife - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 6/1)

The Grade 1 Haskell Invitational is a 1 1/8 mile race for three year olds. This race has been a springboard to the Travers in recent years but it’s got a very rich history in its own right. Greats like: American Pharoah, Holy Bull, Serena’s Song and Rachel Alexandra are just a few of the names of past winners that are in racing’s Hall of Fame for North America. Our two morning line favorites have question marks. Taiba races for Bob Baffert who’s coming off a training suspension. This runner has only raced three times, winning his maiden and the Santa Anita Derby before finishing up the track in the Kentucky Derby. I’m still not sold that he’s seasoned enough to win a race like this. Jack Christopher is a great horse and has done nothing wrong in his career to this point. My gut tells me he’s better suited to sprint races as his sire, Munnings sires very few runners that are effective at a route of ground. The ones that are have distance breeding on their dam’s side but Jack Christopher has more sprint breeding on his dam’s side. I like Arkansas Derby winner, Cyberknife here. His trainer, Brad Cox, won this race last year with Mandaloun. Last time out in the Matt Winn, he waited a little on Howling Time and allowed that one to come back and almost beat him. This time he should be in a better position to stalk from further off the likely early pace battle and come with one run. Howling Time caught my eye a little too but until he wins outside of Kentucky, I’m sticking with others. Cyberknife for me in the Haskell.

Best of luck to everyone playing Saturday’s races from Saratoga and Monmouth!

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