RT's Sunday Churchill Downs Picks: Two $120K MSWs, the 2nd, 4th, feature well-bred horses, top-tier trainers
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With Tom’s Tribute losing yesterday, our database rings true at 0-18 now in that situation. To her credit, it appeared the connections wanted to rate her instead of letting her get to the lead, and she ended up closing well.
Churchill Downs R2|Sun Jun 19|Post Time: 1:14 PM ET
Dirt 4 1/2 Furlongs|2YO MSW|Purse: $120K
On May 26, 8-Chiquita Mosca (8/1) and 5-Mo Bonita (7/2) ran against each other in the slop at this same course and distance. Mo Bonita went off second in the betting to the entry that ran 1-2 and she finished fourth, giving a good effort to lead until late. Asmussen better with second time starters than first at 22%. I will use her underneath. Chiquita Mosca finished fifth and was never a factor. Neither of the two has returned to a solid work tab, so I will pass. 1-Julia’s Chardonnay (10/1) raced at Keeneland in early April and was pinched at the break, then bobbled as a result before chasing the leaders and getting a minor paycheck. She too has returned to pedestrian mornings. I will use her underneath though, as she only had three, 3f works prior to that race and given her performance, she is a battler. Bolt d’Oro is now 5/11 with first time starters after Major Dude took down the 6th at Monmouth yesterday. Today, his daughter 4-Bolts N Rainbows (10/1) debuts and she had a good :48.2 from the gate and a recent 1:01.8 breeze. Trainer Chris Hartman has a better touch with 2yo fillies than males, getting 14% from first time girls and 0% with boys. My choice is 6-Black Forest (4/1) who went off at 24/1 in her debut on June 3 because everyone knows her sire, Frosted, is horrendous with first time starters. She put up a tough fight in her debut, going four wide into the stretch, getting the lead before tiring late. Sire Frosted is 22% with second time starters and her siblings from her dam, Black Oak, have all had dramatically increased Equibase figures in their second start.
Churchill Downs R4|Sun Jun 19|Post Time: 2:13 PM ET
Dirt 5 1/2 Furlongs|2YO MSW|Purse: $120K
2-Mo Moves (4/1) is saddled by hot first time 2yo trainer Tom Amoss as he is 33% out of 30 horses in this situation. This is the second foal for Closing Moves, the first being Mo On The Rocks, who was bred to Uncle Mo, the broodmare sire of this entry, and in 10 attempts he has not done spit. Brad Cox sends out first timer by Uncle Mo 11-Mo Strike (3/1) who has been working well, The Coach has a horse by American Pharoah in this, 1-Western Ghent (15/1) who has also been solid in the morning, and Asmussen has another Gun Runner colt in his arsenal today, 8-Disarm (7/2) who fired a :46.8 work on 6/6; his siblings are 2/4 in their debut. I am certainly using 5-Eli’s Promise (12/1) based on bloodlines alone. His dam's foals are 75% in their first start, and his sire, Not This Time, is 25% with today's class. My choice is Todd Pletcher’s trainee, 9-Summonyourcourage (4/1). He is by Practical Joke, a 27% 2nd time starter sire and he put up a good 82 Equibase number in his debut on May 27 and ended up getting show cash. Pletcher is a better 2nd time starting trainer than first, getting a 30% hit rate.