Garrity's Sunday Stakes: Matt Winn at Churchill Downs, Sunny Ridge at Monmouth, Summertime Oaks at Santa Anita
We have three plays on this June Sunday, in New Jersey, Kentucky, and California. It’s an all-dirt lineup today, and we expect a fast track in all of them, except as noted below. Let’s go.
Churchill Downs, Race 8, 4:22 pm ET
Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Dirt, 3-Year-Olds
Seven line up beneath the Twin Spires for the Matt Winn. We hated him in the Kentucky Derby, but we love 6-Cyberknife here: while he was in over his head in his last start five weeks ago in Louisville, he seems poised to dominate this group of third- and fourth-stringer 3-year-olds. Look for him to sit just behind the pacesetters early, and blow the race open late. We will play him to win at 8/5, and we will do so enthusiastically. The bet: Churchill Downs, Race 8, $50 to win on 6-Cyberknife.
Monmouth Park, Race 10, 4:27 pm ET
$85,000 Sunny Ridge Handicap, 1 mile, Dirt, New Jersey-breds 3 & Up
Rain is in the forecast at the Jersey shore, and we are expecting an off track for the Sunny Ridge at beautiful Monmouth Park. The going makes the pick 6-Prendimi, whose last race was an excellent win in a stakes race at Laurel, and who has a good pedigree for running in the slop. This gelding is 7 years old now, and he is coming off a layoff – his stakes win in Maryland was in October – and both are questions, but we think he will be ready to fire today, and that makes him strictly the one to beat. We will bet him to win at 4-1. The bet: Monmouth Park, Race 10, $40 to win on 6-Prendimi.
Santa Anita, Race 9, 8:03 pm ET
Grade 2 Summertime Oaks, 1 1/16 miles, Dirt, 3-Year-Old Fillies
Seven fillies go in the Summertime Oaks. The filly likely to get most attention at the betting windows is 1-Desert Dawn, who was last seen running third in the Kentucky Oaks. We think her effort that day was merely OK, and while she could win, her chances will be significantly lower than her odds suggest; that makes her an underlay, and a play-against.
We like 7-Lady T. It took this daughter of Into Mischief and John Shirreffs trainee a while to get going, but she broke her maiden in her most recent start, which was the sixth of her young career. She ran significantly better beating maidens that day than she had run before, and while it is fair to suspect that she may have improved because of a pretty soft trip (she was right up front throughout in a race whose pace favored that running style), we think the move forward was more because it was her first race around two turns, distance for which both her pedigree and running style suggest she is far more suited. We think she takes another step forward today, which makes her enormously dangerous, and which makes her 3-1 morning line price too good to pass up. We will bet her to win. The bet: Santa Anita, Race 9, $50 to win on 7-Lady T.
That’s all for today. Until the next time, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.