God's Tipster's Saturday Picks: 4 at Keeneland and 2 at Aqueduct with 2 longshots and a best bet by Proxy
Friday’s Race Recap from Keeneland & Aqueduct:
(All odds US)
Replays for yesterday’s races from Keeneland can be found here:
Replays for yesterday’s races from Aqueduct can be found here:
Race 7: 8th@ 2.00/1
Race 9: 1st@ 0.30/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
In Race 7, Stay Restless stalked the early pace but was done by the top of the stretch, fading in the drive. In Race 9, the Doubledogdare, it was Malathaat who exuded her class and held off Bonny South at short odds.
Race 7: 2nd@ 1.50/1
Race 8: 1st@ 0.80/1 - BEST BET 🔥🔥🔥
Race 9: 1st@ 13.80/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
In Race 7, Big Castle was given a trip off the speed, took the lead in mid stretch and was caught at the wire by 6/1 runner Forestwood Lane. In Race 8, Pipeline went off at an majorly overlaid 4/5 here in the States and won for fun as our day’s BEST BET in a race that was never in doubt. In Race 9, Mighty Meister went to the lead and never looked back as the best at nearly 14/1 odds.
Today was a good day so we’ll stick with the Aqueduct/Keeneland theme for Saturday. We’re expecting beautiful weather at both tracks with fast and firm conditions.
No video this week.
Saturday at Aqueduct:
Race 7: Cerretta - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 10/1)
We begin our day at Aqueduct with Race 7, a 7 furlong maiden race where I have trouble believing our morning line favorites will love the 7 furlong distance. Cerretta is my selection here. She’s a runner coming off a February layoff where she trailed after breaking slowly. That’s a race that has already produced two next out winners and the three who had the fastest final 1/8th of a mile were the winner, the second and third place runners who each returned to win their next start and Cerretta who might’ve been well back after the slow break but she did show some life late. I’m looking for a closer here as the favorites appear to have suspect speed they need to carry 7 furlongs so Cerretta is our choice to mow them down in the lane.
Race 10: Bointheback - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 20/1)
Our second of two high-priced runners racing at Aqueduct today. Race 10 is a 6 furlong turf sprint for maiden claimers bred in the state of New York. Woof, the form on most of these is ugly but many of them are trying the turf for the first time and our selection, Bointheback is one who’s trying the surface for the first time. He actually owns the second highest lifetime speed figure for all those entered in the body of the race and his trainer - the low profile Greg DiPrima has a 20% turf sprint record over the last five years. This one’s dam couldn’t lift a hoof over dirt but her form improved once she raced on grass and that was the case for several of her foals. Trainer DiPrima has pulled off upsets like these in these exact types of races and I’m looking forward to seeing if Bointheback can make some noise first time on the lawn at long odds.
Saturday at Keeneland:
Race 4: Bayou Wind - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/1)
Maiden Claimers go a mile and a sixteenth here and at first glance, Salit, the morning line favorite appears very much the filly to beat with higher speed figures than most of her competition. But at a 5/2 morning line I don’t trust her, especially with trainer Ken McPeek pulling the strings as he’s only winning at 8% for the meet. Bayou Wind is interesting. She comes off a February layoff with a recent bullet workout. Her first few starts on dirt were awful but her race on 11/8 which is buried between her poor dirt form and her decent polytrack form is comparable to the numbers the favorite has been putting up. Value at 8/1 or higher.
Race 5: Seasons - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 2/1)
Allowance race on turf where Seasons makes her seasonal debut off an October layoff. Seasons is regally bred by Tapit out of the dam Winter Memories who was a multiple Grade 1 winner and Winter Memories’ dam, Memories of Silver, was also a multiple Grade 1 winner. Winning is in her blood and she hasn’t won a stakes race quite yet, she’s run well and looks to be the class of this field. Close finishes behind horses like Alda, Speightstown Shirl and Lady Speightspeare show that this one has simply been keeping better company than her rivals. She will need a bit of help in the pace department but should be moving late.
Race 8: Proxy - 2 pts win - BEST BET (US Morning Line Odds: 7/2)
Today’s co-feature race is the Grade 3 Ben Ali at a mile and an eighth on the main track. A tough field has assembled here for this one but I think Proxy is very much the horse to beat off his outstanding second behind Olympiad who’s been unbeatable this year. It takes a special horse to defeat Proxy at today’s distance. Prior to Olympiad defeating him, last year’s eventual Kentucky Derby winner, Mandaloun was the only other runner to defeat him at this distance. He should get a perfect trip off the speed and will need to hold off a late charge by Dynamic One so Brian Hernandez will need to time the ride correctly but if he runs back to his most recent start he’s the winner.
Race 10: Condemn - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 6/1)
We close out our day with a 7 furlong allowance optional claiming event. Once again we get a tough little field to battle it out and there’s a ton of speed signed on. That should set the table for Condemn who, last time out, improved his form dramatically by dropping as many as 10 lengths off the pace in a 5 1/2 furlong race and winning off by nearly two lengths with a powerful closing kick after swinging 8 wide into the stretch. That move came with the addition of blinkers and Lasix last out and he’ll have both again today. Should make the final run and the stretch in distance should only help him. Trainer Tom Drury has excellent numbers with these types of layoffs and he gets a rider upgrade to Johnny Velazquez as the cherry on top.
Best of luck to everyone playing Saturday’s races from Aqueduct & Keeneland!