Rt’s Spot Plays
4.20.2022
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We have tracked four, 2yo races thus far, and three of them have been won by the chalk. Three of the races have been at Keeneland and one at Santa Anita. We will see if that trend continues.
I was mistaken on the date for the Keeneland contest. It is Friday and I will post my picks before I leave. One race at Keeneland today.
Keeneland Race 4 – 80K Maiden Special
2yo’s going 4.5 furlongs
2B – Dontinvademyspace (15/1) turned in a :47.2 work on April 13. Having not recognized his broodmare sire, With Distinction, our database showed two occasions that his grandsons ran their maiden race, and both won. He is coupled with 2-Putthepastbehind (15/1), who put up a :47.2 work with his stablemate. In four of the five 2yo races we have tracked, the winning horse put up a 4 furlong :12er or below work. His dams’ foals are 1/3 and sire Gone Astray is 14% with today’s parameters. Both are trained by impressive first time starting trainer Gerald Brooks (25%). The icing is Gerardo Corrales, the hottest jockey (33%) at Keeneland of late, takes the mount. Corrales is 4/13 in sprints and 2/3 with 2yo’s. These are not reasons to bet the ranch, however, the price is worth using them in exotics.
There are two good reasons to bet 3-Abinadi (4/1) a) Flavien Prat is hitting a scorching 46% in sprints, and b) he has two four furlong works – the last being a decent :49.2. He is trained by 13% first timer Luis Mendez, which is beyond our 12% threshold. Of the two Wesley Ward entries, I am staying away from the Irad/Ward (29%) connection of 6-Talking Pharoah (3/1) in favor of 13-Transfer The King (5/1). This colt’s sire, Iqbaal, is 56% with first timers and 67% when they are 2yo’s. His dam, Porticipation has five other foals that have raced and two of those won at first asking. 4-Simply Super (10/1) is by 33% sire with 2yo male sprinters, Super Saver and is ridden by the meets leading jockey Tyler Gaffalione. Trainer Mike Maker is 12% with first timers and five days ago, he smoked a :47.8 from the gate. He also did a :48.4 from the gate on April 8th. If he hovers around this price, he’ll see a few of my dollars.
There are intriguing choices, yet I am going with 7-Baytown Get It On (8/1), who was my neighbor’s pick last time and ran second. Interesting to see he is the only one with a race and the ML is 8/1. There are two Wesley Ward entries in this, so the oddsmaker is anticipating the money going there. Out of the dozen or more times that I can remember an MSW or MCL race with only one runner that is experienced, I lost maybe twice.
Happy Hunting!