God's Tipster's Thursday Keeneland Pick is a longshot sprinter in the 7th, with a new trainer and Lasix
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Wednesday’s Race Recap from Keeneland:
(All odds US )
Replays for yesterday’s races from Keeneland can be found here:
Race 1: 2nd@ 4.80/1
Race 4:6th@ 19.20/1
Race 5: 2nd@ 0.70/1
Race 7: 4th@ 4.80/1
Race 8: 1st @ 1.40/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Our week began with a stumbling start when in Race 1 at Keeneland, our first time starter, Ryvit broke poorly. In a 4 1/2 furlong race that’s not something that’s easy to recover from and despite that, he rallied strongly for second while being ten hours the best in this race. Just a bit unlucky. In Race 4, our selection broke slowly once again on debut and never really contended. In Race 5, Varotti was hard-ridden throughout and ended up second behind a 73/1 upset winner who was able to ride a speed bias to victory. In Race 7, Militarist finished fourth behind another inside runner who benefited from a speed bias. We finally got on the board with our BEST BET when Mercy Warren won Race 8 in emphatic fashion.
We’ll stick around at Keeneland for the week. On Thursday we’re expecting partly cloudy skies with spring-like temperatures. Let’s get to it.
Thursday at Keeneland:
Race 7: Whatstheconnection - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 15/1)
A 7 furlong sprint for three year olds and on the surface there appear to be only three that can contend for top honors with Blue Kentucky looking like our likely favorite. But his last race was terrible and now he shows up for sale so I’m avoiding this one at a short price. Whatstheconnection might be a little sneaky in this spot so he’s worth a shot at long odds. He broke his maiden at 8/1 first time out - never an easy thing to do against a field of nine other runners. He was thrown to the wolves in the Grade 3 Bashford Manor and finished up the track but something may have gone amiss that day as he didn't show go again til four months later and he didn’t last long that day. Today he gets a full makeover, complete with trainer change to John Ortiz who wins with 19% of his dirt sprinters overall. He gets blinkers on and he gets Lasix again - two things he had when he won his debut that he didn’t have in subsequent starts. He reentered the work tab in late February with a few snappy 3 furlong drills but his workout on 3/27 breezing from the gate here at Keeneland was a full 4/5ths of a second faster than the next fastest of 18 workouts that day. He followed that up with two strong 5 furlong breezes. Surprise package in a field where the likely favorites look a bit fraudulent.
Best of luck to everyone playing Thursday’s races from Keeneland!