God's Tipster's Saturday 3.19 Aqueduct Picks and Gulfstream Picks – 7 races, 3 longshots
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Friday’s Race Recap from Aqueduct:
(All odds US)
Race replays for yesterday’s races from Aqueduct can be found here:
Race 8: 5th@ 5.10/1
Race 9: 6th@ 11.90/1
Race 10: 1st@ 8.50/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Our day began in Race 8 where the heavy favorite broke first and the other pressing speed was left behind leaving Prisoner to go coast to coast like butter on toast. Wicked Mad lacked room in the stretch and checked in 5th but I got the feeling nobody was beating Prisoner today. In Race 9, Mazel Eighteen set a pressured pace - pushed by the favorite and eventual winner - Snicket. Mazel Eighteen faded in the drive. In Race 10, Amadeus Music broke last in the field from the rail and it looked like it might not be in the cards as first time starter - Fast N Fearious took a clear lead without much early pressure. Amadeus Music was well meant though and stormed home on the outside to run down the loose leader to get us a nice 8.50/1 shot to close out the day.
Let’s take a look at some races from Aqueduct and Gulfstream for Saturday. We’re expecting rain and mud at Aqueduct and sunshine along with warm temps at Gulfstream Park.
**No video this week. I got a late start on the races and ran out of time.**
Race 1: Analysis - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 20/1)
Maiden claimers kick off our Aqueduct card and this is a pretty weak bunch. Weak fields can sometimes leave the door open for a longshot and my analysis says that Analysis fits the bill. He will have to improve his speed figures significantly to get top honors but I have reason to believe he may do that. Jim Ryerson trained our winner of Race 10 on Friday’s card at 8.50/1, Amadeus Music, and Analysis actually shows two workouts in common with that impressive winner from Friday’s card. Like with Amadeus Music, Jose Lezcano rides and tends to do well with Ryerson’s runners. His first race wasn’t as bad as it looks as he closed nicely in the final 1/4 mile and he gets blinkers on today which is an 18% win move for Ryerson who is only winning at 10% overall this year. Bombs away to start our day!
Race 6: Tin Pan Alley - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 7/2)
New York Bred maidens square off here at 6 1/2 furlongs. Our selection, Tin Pan Alley, returns to make his second career start after debuting in Saratoga. That was a productive race as the winner and third place finisher both came back to with their next starts. Trainer Chad Brown is winning at an unheard of 46% this Aqueduct meet and wins with 25% of his runners off layoffs like these. Workouts say he’s fit.
Race 7: Kingdom Queen - 1 pt win (US Morning Line: 15/1)
Starter optional claimers race 6 furlongs and we’ve got an abundance of speed signed on here which should set the stage for a closer like Kingdom Queen. This runner is likely to be overlooked due to her low profile connections and muddied up recent form but owns speed figures better than the majority of this field if she can run back to her race three starts ago. Jackie Davis has been riding well and this one should be closing late at a big number.
Saturday Gulfstream Park:
Race 1: Carnivore - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 5/1)
Maiden claimers race 1 1/16th miles on turf and while jockey Irad Ortiz looks like he’ll take the most attention with Irish King coming from the outside, we’re siding with the runner to his inside - Carnivore. Carnivore drops in class and owns early speed which is something field doesn’t have very much of. Trainer Jeff Hiles is winning at 19% on the year overall and this one is value at 5/1 odds.
Race 6: Spirit Wind - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 2/1)
The 6 furlong Any Limit is our first stakes race of the afternoon and Spirit Wind is the selection. Strategic Bird is our morning line slight favorite but I have a feeling Spirit Wind will take more money based on her powerhouse performance on Feb. 18 where she whipped maidens by nearly 16 lengths. She did it nicely too. We’ll within herself. She will likely get pressure from Strategic Bird but based on her last race Spirit Wind looks like the speed of the speed.
Race 10: High Crime - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 20/1)
We’re looking to rob some bookmakers of money and that’s the only crime we’re guilty of committing. High Crime is our selection for the $100k Silks Run at 5 furlongs on the turf. He leads a field of 10 runners but owns the early pace advantage with inside positioning and that’s a dangerous combination over this turf course. Looking back a little over a year ago, High Crime earned his lifetime best speed figure over this surface & distance. That day he finished 2nd to Leinster by a hard-fought neck and Leinster was coming off a close third in the Breeder’s Cup. He wasn’t able to reproduce that effort since he left Gulfstream, but he’s back now and reunited with jockey Tyler Gaffalione who owns a 1 for 1 record with this runner.
Race 11: Nitrous Channel - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 7/5)
The Hutchison is for three year olds at 6 furlongs. I spent more time on this race than I probably should have just to end up on the favorite. Nitrous Channel simply looks too good based on his impressive maiden win. His speed figure advantage is huge and he’s facing a Tampa-based Todd Pletcher runner and yet another horse exiting the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile, which has turned out to be a bust of a race. Short on price but Nitrous Channel appears to be long on talent.
Best of luck to everyone playing Saturday’s races from Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park!!