Racing at Oaklawn, today the site of the Rebel Stakes.
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Garrity's Saturday Stakes Picks: Rebel & Honeybee at Oaklawn, Stymie at Aqueduct, Wishing Well at Santa Anita
The racing calendar on this last Saturday in February reflects the season: there is a sign of warmer days ahead, with the day’s biggest race, the Rebel Stakes in Arkansas, a hint of spring, a hint of the Kentucky Derby trail ramping up in earnest as the forsythia blooms in March. But the rest of the stakes slate across the country is like the trees outside our window, still stuck in winter mode, with the pickings pretty slim.
But slim pickings are better than no pickings, so we are happy to celebrate late winter with five plays in five races at four tracks today, four of them stakes, from New York to Arkansas to Louisiana to California. We expect fast dirt and firm turf in all of them, so let’s go.
Oaklawn Park, Race 5, 3:10 pm ET
Grade 3 Honeybee Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Dirt, 3-Year-Old Fillies
Six sophomore fillies line up for the Honeybee. We can’t get past favored 3-Secret Oath, who has won her last two starts the way she figures to win this one, by sitting just off a quick pace, moving forward and pressing the leaders around the far turn, and running off down the stretch. She will be a short price, but she looks so superior to the rest of the field that we are comfortable playing her anyway. We will bet her to win at 3/2. The bet: Oaklawn Park, Race 5, $50 to win on 3-Secret Oath.
Aqueduct, Race 8, 4:30 pm ET
$125,000 Stymie Stakes, 1 mile, Dirt, 4 & Up
The Stymie drew a field of seven older horses to run a one-turn mile on the Aqueduct dirt. We are expecting an early pace somewhere between solid and fast, which makes the pick 2-Waxman, who has enough speed to stay reasonably close to the early leaders, and a strong finishing kick to leave them in his wake when the pacesetters begin shortening stride down the stretch. He’s a lightly-raced colt with a pedigree (by Empire Maker, out of a Pulpit mare) that is both terrific and suggests that he may be a late bloomer, and we think he just might be coming into his own physically in his second start as a 4-year-old. We will bet Waxman to win at 7/2. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 8, $40 to win on 2-Waxman.
Fair Grounds, Race 7, 5:05 pm ET
Allowance, 6 furlongs, Dirt, 3-Year-Old Fillies
One of the handicapping angles we like is the cutback, when a horse starts in a shorter race immediately after running a longer distance. The idea is that the longer effort sharpens a horse’s overall fitness level, and this allows the horse to finish very strongly when running shorter. We mention this because the pick here, a 3-year-old filly named 1-Matareya, fits this profile quite nicely: she was last seen running second in an allowance race at Oaklawn Park on Dec. 31, and returns here in a six furlong sprint. She has enough speed to stay in contention early, and should finish quite powerfully with that longer race under her belt. Her speed figures mark Matareya as a major contender; the cutback is what seals the deal for us. We will bet her to win at 5/2. The bet: Fair Grounds, Race 7, $40 to win on 1-Matareya.
Oaklawn Park, Race 11, 6:22 pm ET
Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Dirt, 3-Year-Olds
A good group of eleven 3-year-olds goes into the starting gate for the Rebel. This is an important step on the road to the Kentucky Derby; expect to see at least a couple of these runners in Louisville on the first Saturday in May. We are taking a shot with 3-Cairama, who is 15-1 after running sixth in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Jan. 1. On the surface, that effort looks lousy, but we think he ran deceptively well that day, finishing pretty well despite blowing the break, overcoming a wide trip and traffic trouble in the race’s middle stages, all over a sloppy track that he probably did not like all that much. He showed signs of being a runner last year, and a step forward makes him a win contender here. At 15-1, that is too good for us to pass up; we will bet Cairama to win. The bet: Oaklawn Park, Race 11, $40 to win on 3-Cairama.
Santa Anita Park, Race 7, 6:37 pm ET
$75,000 Wishing Well Stakes, 6 ½ furlongs, Turf, Fillies & Mares 4 & Up
Seven go in the Wishing Well, but we have eyes for only one: 6-Tapwater, a Richard Mandella trainee who is in good form, coming off a sharp runner-up finish in the Grade 2 La Cienega Stakes, just a head behind the winner, on Jan. 9, and who figures to get a dream trip, as she’s a closer, and the early pace in the Wishing Well on paper looks as though it will be fast enough to set up her late charge. She will be well back early, and flying late; we will bet her to win at 3-1. The bet: Santa Anita, Race 7, $50 to win on 6-Tapwater.
That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.
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