Garrity's Saturday Stakes: Picks for Gulfstream Park, Tampa Bay Downs, Aqueduct, Delta Downs, Santa Anita

As the days get longer, winter gets stronger, the old saying goes, and that has been proven this weekend in Arkansas, where a nasty storm forced Oaklawn Park to shut down racing through the weekend. But there is still plenty of fine stakes action across the country on the table today, including a couple of good stakes for 3-year-olds, and we have six plays, a Saturday six pack, at tracks from one end of this great land to the other. We expect fast dirt and firm turf in all of them, so let’s go.

Gulfstream Park, Race 7, 3:01 pm ET

Grade 3 Kittens Joy Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Turf, 3-Year-Olds

A field of eight 3-year-olds lines up for the Kitten’s Joy. We like 2-Coinage, a Mark Casse trainee who was thoroughly outrun in his last, when he finished ninth in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf at Del Mar in November. What we like about Coinage in this spot is speed: He has quite a bit of it, and his natural early zip, plus the inside post position, should put him on the lead early, and on Gulfstream’s speed-favoring turf course, we don’t think the rest of the field is going to catch him. We think Coinage wires this group, and will bet him to win at 6-1. The bet: Gulfstream Park, Race 7, $35 to win on 2-Coinage.

Tampa Bay Downs, Race 8, 3:46 pm ET

Grade 3 Tampa Bay Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Turf, 4 & Up

A dozen older horses line up to run eight and a half furlongs in the Tampa Bay Stakes. Partly because of the size of the field, and partly because of the traits of the horses comprising it, we are expecting a rapid early pace, which will set the table for 10-Devamani, a stretch-running Chad Brown trainee whose late turn of foot is quite good, as he showed winning a Grade 3 at Monmouth Park in June. He has been away since, and while the layoff would normally be a concern, Brown’s is good enough at running horses off the bench that the time off doesn’t bother us. Look for Devamani to be mid-pack, or perhaps even a bit farther back, early, and to mow them all down late. We will bet him to win at 3-1. The bet: Tampa Bay Downs, Race 8, $40 to win on 10-Devamani.

Aqueduct, Race 8, 4:25 pm ET

Grade 3 Withers Stakes, 1 ⅛ miles, Dirt, 3-Year-Olds

The Withers came up a strong race this year, at least from a betting standpoint, as the field of eleven 3-year-olds seems pretty evenly matched. We like 1-Constitutionlawyer, the son of Constitution who broke his maiden in his third career start last out. He earned a big speed figure for that effort, and while we might normally be inclined to discount the fig because the race was on a muddy track – wet tracks frequently produce aberrant results – we think it is more likely that Constitutionlawyer just took some time to come into his own, to mature physically, and that he will validate his maiden win with a big race today. At 7/2, that makes him a strong play. We will bet him to win. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 8, $40 to win on 1-Constitutionlawyer.

Gulfstream Park, Race 11, 5:10 pm ET

Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Dirt, 3-Year-Olds

The South Florida division of the Kentucky Derby trail begins to heat up, as the Holy Bull is the first of a series of races that leads to the Florida Derby, and then to the first Saturday in May. It drew a field of nine. With 3-year-olds this time of year, handicapping involves projection as much as it does assessing past races, and that is the case with 8-White Abarrio, a Saffie Joseph trainee who is the pick. This is his first start of 2022, and while the three starts he made as a juvenile last year would seem to be a little short of marking him as a contender here, it looks to us like he will run big in his first start since November. We particularly like his most recent workout, which was on Jan. 28, as it was sensationally fast. We will bet White Abarrio to win at 6-1. The bet: Gulfstream Park, Race 11, $40 to win on 8-White Abarrio.

Delta Downs, Race 10, 5:26 pm ET

$150,000 Louisiana-Bred Premier Championship, 1 1/16 miles, Dirt, 4 & Up

It’s Louisiana premier day down at Delta Downs in Southwest Louisiana, zydeco country, where they’ll run ten stakes races for state-breds. The richest one of them all is this one, the Premier Championship, and it drew a full field of ten.

We like 3-Luck of the Draw, who had no luck of the draw in his last, when he had an outside post, and finished fifth, in a state-bred stakes at Delta Downs. It is an effort that looks bad on paper, but a closer look reveals that he had a lousy trip: Luck of the Draw was wide throughout, which is bad at any track, but is doubly bad at a short track like Delta whose circumference is only 6 furlongs. It is as much to his credit that he made a big move around the far turn as it is unsurprising that he flattened out late after losing so much ground throughout the race. The inside post today should get him a better trip today, and that makes him strictly the one to beat. We will bet him to win at 4-1, and we will do so with gusto. The bet: Delta Downs, Race 10, $50 to win on 3-Luck of the Draw.

Santa Anita Park, Race 8, 7:10 pm ET
Grade 2 San Pasqual Stakes, 1 ⅛ miles, Dirt, 4 & Up

The San Pasqual drew a field of six, which, by Southern California standards these days, qualifies as a decent-sized field. We like the runner who seems to have the most upside: it’s 6-Law Professor, a Mike McCarthy trainee who comes off a smart win in the Grade 2 Mathis Brothers Mile on Dec. 26. That race was originally carded for turf, but was rained off grass and on the main track, and we think that will turn out to be a serendipitous occurrence for Law Professor, as his pedigree (by Constitution, out of a Ghostzapper mare) looks more dirt-oriented to us, and he just may be a late-bloomer who is sitting on a big season running in dirt stakes. Look for him to be in the middle of the pack early, and to finish very strongly; we will bet him to win at 7/2. The bet: Santa Anita, Race 8, $40 to win on 6-Law Professor.

That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the races, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.