Maiden America Saturday 1.8: RT & 3yos have Gulfstream Park Picks, Tampa Bay Downs Picks, Santa Anita stakes
January 8, 2022
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Gulfstream Race 4 - $60K Maiden Special
3yo’s going six furlongs
Going with a morning line longshot 1-Be Onboard (15/1) who is likely listed at that price because the trainers last name is not Brown, Pletcher, Ward, Cox et al. It is Jorge Duarte, who is 36% with first time starters, 38% with 1st Lasix and 35% with two year olds. Today, Jorge has a live colt in the mix with sire and Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense. As a sire, he is a 27% prop with three year old colts debuting. His mom, Always Trouble has two foals who both won their bow. Duarte has been working this colt steadily since August and has increased his works leading up to this race; his last three workouts have been notable. There are expensive, well bred horses in this race, making this race worth watching
Gulfstream Race 7 - $60K Maiden Special
3yo’s going one mile
10-Volcanic (5/1) is a colt to keep an eye on. Trained by Mark Casse and ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, he put in two terrific efforts over the summer and the connections felt confident enough to enter him in The Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga even though he hasn’t crossed the finish line first. He had a horrible race that day as he hit the gate, got spooked and Dylan Davis fought to right him along the backstretch, only to have him burn his energy. His sire is Violence, whose progeny have been best below a mile and a sixteenth, and Violence’s sire is Medaglia d’Oro, a multiple graded stakes winner. On the dam side, Pulpit, the broodmare sire, won the Bluegrass and was fourth in the Derby to Silver Charm. So, in his lineage, Volcanic does have the capacity to go longer. Today will be a good test to see where he is.
Tampa Race 8 - $31.5K Maiden Special
3yo’s going one mile and forty yards
As much as you dislike playing the chalk, so do I. Yet, 3-Afjan (5/2), appears to be the one to beat. With a race under his belt (not a good effort at all) as the heavy favorite, his debut went poorly, so he was shelved since that mid-September race. Leading into this, his works have been very good and as we all know, Todd Pletcher is an ace at bringing horses back from a layoff. This is a big step down in class, and 1-Tap The Gavel (7/2), who had a better debut here on Nov. 27, is staying at the same class.
Santa Anita Race 8 – The G2 $200K St. Ynez Stakes
3yo fillies going seven furlongs
Will late of foot runners 6-Miss Mattie B (5/1), Under The Stars (8/5) or Big Switch (9/5), catch 5-Awake At Midnight or 4-Mamajoon (10/1)? I am betting no and going against Pablo Baffert by taking Doug O’Neill’s trainee Awake At Midnyte, who just missed be a nose in the G3 Jimmy Durante Stakes. Yes, that race was on turf, yet this Nyquist filly has just completed three solid dirt works, and she debuted to a big win here on Halloween day, and that was on dirt.