Racing at Aqueduct.
Friday’s Race Recap from Aqueduct & Oaklawn Park:
(All odds US)
Replays for yesterday’s races from Aqueduct can be found here:
Aqueduct:
Race 3: 2nd@ 2.30/1
Race 8: 6th@ 21.60/1
Race 3 lost some contenders with two gate scratches and ended up being a two horse race between Runninsonofagun and our selection - Good Skate. Unfortunately we were on the losing end of the match race finishing second. In Race 8, our longshot selection, Regal Empire, was never really asked for run by jockey Luis Castro and he checked in a non-threatening 6th.
Race replays for yesterday’s races from Oaklawn are not available.
Oaklawn Park:
Race 5: 5th@ 0.80/1
Sun Path was a major disappointment on the day. She stalked the pace and was pushed on by the turn. You could tell she wasn’t getting out of first gear.
A second place finish along with a fifth and a sixth from three selections.
Happy New Year everyone! We are EXCITED to be kicking off 2022 with races from three different tracks and we’re already looking ahead to the 2022 Kentucky Derby with 3-year-old Stakes action. No video this week as I’ve got a touch of Covid and nobody wants to see that. We are expecting rain at Aqueduct and Oaklawn with sunny conditions expected at Gulfstream Park.
Saturday picks for Aqueduct:
Race 5: The Institute: 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 6/1)
New York Bred maidens sprint 6 furlongs here and while there’s some speed signed on, The Institute is the speed runner who intrigued me the most as he’s getting Lasix for the first time and has been running like a horse that needs it. He gets the services of the meet’s top rider (and our most successful rider based on who actually wins for us) in Jose Ortiz. 5 workouts since his most recent start and a muddy track should only help him as he’s got a Tomlinson number of 425 which is head and shoulders ahead of the rest of the field.
Race 8: Mr. Jefferson - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 9/2)
The Jerome at one mile is New York’s very first race on the road towards the Kentucky Derby. There are a few contenders in here and a few pretenders. I’m going with Mr. Jefferson who shipped in from Maryland to run a credible 4th in the Grade 2 Remsen over this surface at an 1/8 of a mile longer than he’s running today. While most of these are exiting lower level stakes races and maiden races, Mr. Jefferson made a 4 wide bid turning for home and only weakened in that final 1/8th. Today’s mile distance should hit him right in the middle of the eyes as should the expected off track. Trainer Michael Trombetta won this race a few years back with Independence Hall.
Saturday picks for Gulfstream Park:
Race 4: Fast and Flirty - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 5/1)
The Cash Run will be run at 1 mile here for newly turned three-year-old fillies. Plenty of speed signed on here and a stone closer named Kathleen O. Our selection, Fast and Flirty, fits right in between the two and should get first jump on the fading speed runners. Trainer Brendan Walsh teams up with Tyler Gaffalione here and they click at 26% together. Walsh has won 3 of 8 races here at Gulfstream on the main track with three year old routers and 5/1 offers value.
Race 7: Of a Revolution - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 4/1)
The 6 furlong Limehouse Stakes has plenty of speed signed on. Of a Revolution has been compared by trainer Saffie Joseph to Drain the Clock - his multiple graded stakes winning sprinter who was bumping around South Florida last year at this time. This runner stalked a fast early pace and might’ve moved a bit too early but he put away some pretty strong sprinters. A similar pace setup is expected today for a 23% winning trainer.
Race 9: Grand Sonata - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 7/2)
Turf three-year-olds race a mile and anyone who saw the replay of Grand Sonata’s most recent start knows that she had a terrible trip and was probably best despite finishing fifth. She get a a massive rider upgrade today and while many of these are jumping from maiden races to stakes company for the first time, that’s not the case for Grand Sonata. Trainer Todd Pletcher is only winning at a 46% rate with runners at this meet winning 12 of 26 starts here. Bullet workouts since shipping to Florida add to the appeal.
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Saturday picks for Oaklawn Park:
Race 1: Forsaken - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 6/1)
Maiden claimers sprint 6 furlongs and Forsaken’s most recent start would take this. He’s got enough early speed to stay with the pace and has more staying power than most in here. 29% winning trainer wins with 33% of his runners dropping into maiden claimers. These 6/1 odds are more likely to be closer to 3/1 by post time so if you can actually lock in 6/1 it’s good value here.
Race 9: Home Brew - 2 pts win - BEST BET (US Morning Line Odds: 3/1)
FUN renewal of the Smarty Jones at a mile for three year olds. This race kicks off the Midwest road to the Kentucky Derby. A few strong looking runners take on Home Brew in this one and Home Brew was one who impressed me last out. He raced on the pace this time and was able to dismantle that field one by one finally drawing away to win by nearly 4 lengths. Trainer Brad Cox is winning at a wicked 39% for the meet and he gets his top rider, Florent Geroux, 26% for this race. Anything can happen in a 14 horse field on a sloppy track but I think that when the mud settles, Home Brew will have stamped himself as a serious contender for 3yo stakes races going forward.
Best of luck to everyone playing Saturday’s races from Aqueduct, Oaklawn and Gulfstream!