Thursday Aqueduct Picks: God's Tipster picks four races, is betting against the morning line favorites
Wednesday’s Race Recap from Gulfstream Park:
(All odds US)
Replays for yesterday’s races from Gulfstream Park are found below:
Race 1: 2nd@ 5.70/1
Race 3: 4th@ 11.80/1
Race 8: 4th@ 10.20/1
(No replay availabile)
A second and two fourths from three picks. We didn’t get the rain we expected until just before Race 8, despite the fact that there was an 80% chance of rain in Florida for the entire day. In Race 1, we knew the heavy favorite was fraudulent and he didn’t get the trip he needed and finished off the board. Adios Señor went to the lead and dug in gamely but finished second in Race 1. In Race 3, our original selection for the race was the eventual winner - Champagne Lady – but since I was 80% sure it was going to get rained to polytrack, I sided with Maria’s Revenge who put in a game run to finish fourth and just missed third but needed more pace to set up her closing kick. Before Race 8 it started absolutely pouring. The speed horses went out and set a dawdling pace and Cable Channel never had a chance and checked in 4th.
Let’s take a look at some races for Thursday from Aqueduct where we expect fast and dry conditions Time to make some money!
Thursday picks for Aqueduct:
Race 1: Wicked Happy - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 7/2)
Maiden claiming fillies sprint 6 furlongs and this is our first of two maiden claiming races where we’re trying to topple a weak looking favorite. In this race, Alita is our likely favorite off a high figure (but ugly looking) race at Indiana Downs. Two runners have returned from that race to run significantly lower speed figures in their next start and after viewing the replay I want nothing to do with that runner. The fact that she finished second in that race was more of an indictment on the quality of her competition than anything else. Wicked Happy’s speed figures on turf tower over these and if it weren’t for Alita’s inflated speed figure last time out, she’d have this field’s top dirt speed figure as well (she’s tied with Alita). There’s lots of cheap speed signed on and she should sit the right trip. She adds blinkers - a move which produced one of her best performances to date. She won’t take as much money because she’s had a bunch of chances at this level but she does look best here.
Race 3: Synonymous - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 6/1)
More maiden claimers and another heavy favorite I’m looking forward to trying to topple. Strong Point is our likely favorite and he was 1/2 odds last time out and races for a trainer who has yet to win a race in his career. Seeing as he’s likely to be a heavy favorite I’m taking a stand against.
Synonymous is interesting to me here. She’s never raced on dirt in her nine career starts and will finally get her chance. Despite her sire being a turf champion and her dam being by the great turf stallion, Dynaformer, her Tomlinson figure actually has her better bred for the main track than the turf. If her turf numbers translate over she will be a handful against this weak field. She also appears to have the strongest closing kick of the bunch.
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Race 5: Jacks American Pie - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 15/1)
Claimers sprint 6 furlongs in this race and this field is LOADED with speed. Jacks American Pie cuts back from a mile and might just sit the trip off the speed. This one sheds blinkers and is posted on the outside. Low profile connections will ensure a big price and he’s got plenty of speed figures that say he belongs here. Price play.
Race 8: Devious Banker - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 4/1)
Maiden claimers go a mile here and our selection, Devious Banker, owns this field’s top speed figure on dirt by a full 16 points over his next closest rival and yet he’s not likely to be favored here due to low profile connections and the fact that Brad Cox trains the horse to his outside. Trainer Cleveland Johnson is having a good year (18% wins) and this runner has been facing better. Today he drops to his career lowest class and adds blinkers. Owns the best early speed and should be tough to run down.
Best of luck to everyone playing Thursday’s races from Aqueduct !