Maiden America 12.12.2021
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Race 4 Gulfstream Park - $60K Maiden Special
2yo fillies going five furlongs on turf
2-Halo Of Fire (7/5) – smart move by Wesley Ward putting her back on turf after two dirt attempts. Her bow was a turf race at Saratoga in late August, running five and a half furlongs where she went off low in the odds and finished evenly at fifth. She moved to Keeneland and two stabs at dirt to no avail. She is by Munnings whose two year old fillies are 25% turf winners versus his 20% dirt record. The concern is her four pedestrian works coming into the race. 3-Keene On Jenny (10/1) debuted at Indiana Grand in mid-October and ran fifth. She too has a pair of marginal works and with the public viewing her at 52/1 in her maiden race, she’s a pass. 6-Perfect Provision (7/2) by now has Saffie Joseph is scratching his head wondering what to do with this filly. She is by Munnings as well, who has three races to date and has not shown speed figure improvement yet. She is Group 1 breeze tested with a 70/79 score and an above average stride length with 25.47 feet per stride. This is her first try at turf and we know Munnings fillies fare better on that surface. So, she has the requisite talent to win today, she just needs to put a race together. 8-Bali Baby (6/1) is by Bal A Bali whose 2yo first starting daughters are a terrible 0/7 in sprints. Her works have been average as well, so she’s a pass. Given the shallow level of competition, my choice is Bitty Boss (8/1), a Street Boss filly whose progeny sport a 4/11 record in turf sprint debuts. Trainer Brendan Walsh is 15% with first time starters and she has more than three :12er works leading up.
Race 6 Oaklawn Park - $84K Maiden Special
2yo’s going six furlongs on dirt
3-Back To Normal (3/1) – Because all tracks have a variant on purses for two year old maidens in open company, I checked our database for two year olds who have three races coming into today’s race from msw to msw races at this level or greater. This number starts at $60K because that is Santa Anita’s normal purse, and goes as high as $127K, which is Woodbine. Out of that range, we have 112 horses and 15 winners, or this, on the surface, is a 14% prop for you. Of the winners, one horse finished the last race in 6th place, two in 5th, one in third and the remaining eleven have finished second or lower, and lower means a head, neck or nose. So, since 3-Back To Normal finished 8th in her last race, then 3rd, 4th and 2nd respectively, she is a pass unless none better surface. 1-Maasai Warrior (5/2) has the morning line oddsmaker on his team, making this first time starter for Brad Cox the favorite. He has had a plethora of good works leading into today, and his bloodline, Hard Spun/Waltzingintherain by Tizway has a 3/26 record with two year old male dirt sprinters. His daddy, Hard Spun, blasted off winning with a 93 Equibase score and never looked back. As you can tell, his 26 sons haven’t done as well. If you believe in pedigree being the major determining factor for betting debut horses, when you stumble on a Hard Spun colt, check to see if his grandaddy won, as is the dictating pattern. Tizway, this colts grandpa, did not win. 9-Bet He’s Ready (8/1) is trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen and is by More Than Ready, whose colts are 3/8, or a strong 38% win prop in their second race. If you take out three of the others because they debuted on synthetic, or were originally scheduled for turf, it is now 3/5 or 60%. 9-Bet He’s Ready is a $200K Fasig-Tipton acquisition and his works leading up to his debut were reflected in the odds of 16/1 and a 7th place result, well back. That said, today he gets a slight drop in class, going from an 87 Equibase rating to an 83. The addition of race day Lasix, one race experience, and Group 2 breeze tested can be a reason to bet him. 8-Ev’s Sherman (6/1) has been solid in the morning leading up to his bow, yet he is by sire Da Stoops, who has zero boy 2yo’s start. The sire is not a black type and ran 16/5-5-4 for $641K, so he had a solid in the money record. Use underneath. Since 7-Robert’s Ghost (6/1) and 6-Deputy Connect have shown little in the work tab, I am going to go for a long shot with 5-Treaty (20/) who is by Violence. He has been gelded since his first and only race, gets blinkers, first time Lasix, and a snappy :47 work on December 6. So, yes, he is all dressed up and raring to go.
Happy Hunting!