Maiden America Friday 12.3: The Hooptie Handicapper has Oaklawn Picks and Gulfstream Picks for 2yos
Maiden America by Rt’s Spot Plays
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Three, two year old stakes races to look at today
Race 8 Oaklawn Park - The $150K Advent Stakes
Two year olds’ going six furlongs on dirt
I have 10-Higher Standard (3/1) taking this as Tom Amoss ships this Into Mischief colt from Churchill after blistering his competition in the mud in his debut last out. Toss in a :59.2 work twelve days ago, and we have a ready winner.
Race 6 Gulfstream Park – The $75K Wait A While Stakes
Two year old fillies going one mile on turf
There are only two in this race that appear interesting and 1-Gun Boat (4/1) is one of them. She broke her maiden last out in her third try and shipped down from Aqueduct. She has been worked twice since and although pedestrian in her works, Shug is more known for where his horses fit best than his pressing trainees on their workouts. Look for her to roll early. The other horse is 2-Sunstrike (8/1) who is by Dark Angel, which is odd because he is as white as falling snow, who stands in Ireland for about $70K a crack. Dark Angel’s progeny has had a good year stateside in 2021 with Althiqua taking the Diana and Longines stakes, and Sunstrike’s half-brother, Raging Bull winning the Maker’s Mark this year and finishing a very close fourth to Space Blues in the BC Turf Mile this year. High percentage winner Paco Lopez in the irons today gives this selection more meaning. This is a step down and a jumping off point for Sunstrike, so I am in.
Race 10 Gulfstream – The $75K Pulpit Stakes
Two year olds’ going a mile on turf
7-Duke Of Love (9/2) Josie Carroll shipped this son of Cupid from Woodbine where he won his only race in a huge manner, coming off the pace slipping to the inside and blasted down the stretch with his ears perked and tail swooshing. So, using STATS Race Lens, I plugged in Cupid as dad, progeny is to have, over the past five years, 2yo male, first route, stakes and second race. Voila it regurgitated one horse and lo and behold that horse went from Woodbine synthetic to turf and won in October of this year. God Of Love. Could it be fate? Hmmm. 5-Red Danger (5/2) is not looking like much danger unless you put your money on him as the ML fave. He snagged a $500K stakes against lesser in September and summarily had his ass handed to him at Keeneland and Churchill, getting beaten by lengths. This guy is going to be one of those two-year-olds who loses his mojo over the winter because the fade has started. 1-Biz Biz Buzz (5/1) can make noise today. He put up a big number in the Belmont Futurity Stakes two back, then took a ton of money only to disappoint in The Atlantic Beach Stakes. Shipped south, and a couple of workouts under his belt, he will be worth using underneath.
This brings us to long strider 2-Eldon’s Prince (6/1) Saffie Joseph/Edgar Zayas are a potent combination at 31%. This guy is by Cairo Prince whose progeny are a solid 20% winner for turf males. That is 31 horses out of the last five years that fit a popular stud who has 322 horses in training the last five years. In context, does he have a 20% chance of winning? No. He has an 9% chance of winning as do the other 10 in this race.
So, my choice of 11-Concrete Glory (20/1) scratched, and I do believe Duke Of Love is the winner of this race today