Maiden America Thursday Horse Racing Picks: The Hooptie Handicapper has 2yos at Gulfstream Park, Delaware Park
Maiden America 10.28.2021
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Yesterday, my selection of first timer All In Sync was impressive in his debut given the wide trip Ricardo Santana gave him. He showed grit and determination battling in the stretch for place. The second choice, Triple P in the 8th was over just after it started as Francisco Arrieta was lucky to stay on her after a huge bobble. She ran well getting into contention before gassing late.
Two plays today - one from Delaware Park and the second from Gulfstream, hoping the rain does not hit there until after the race. The choice of the 4th at Belmont was taken off the turf, so scrub that.
Gulfstream Park Race 1 - $55K Maiden Special
2yo’s going 5.5 on synthetic
There are four horses in this that are worth looking at.
8-Lili Bear (2/1) Saffie Joseph, 21% with horses off 1-2 month layoffs, trains this daughter of Liam’s Map, whose 2yo female progeny are 20% off 31-60 days layoff. Skeptical at the fact that 2yo’s with two races experience are only 7%, she does appear ready with her last three works being a :59 in two and a 48.4 in her last. What her odds are a post time will tell if she is worth the bet. 3-Hot Peppers (9/2) worked a 1:00 from the gate and two recent four furlong works. By Khozan, whose 2yo daughters in msw races are 14%, trainer Ronald Spatz is 18% with first staters and jockey Jaramillo Emisael is on fire the last 10 days nailing 27% wins. Group 2 breeze fid 2yo’s are 14% on debut. 8-Lily’s Lead (8/1) you must pay attention anytime Samy Camacho is in the irons. She has two races, the latest being a dud on dirt and her debut a promising one on turf. Perhaps the switch to synthetic will be the tonic? 7-Boo Boo Kitty (6/1) is by Poseidon’s Warrior whose 2yo daughters are 14% in their second try. Equibase par for this is 71 and she fired a 70 in her debut and only race, at Presque Isle on July 13. Given today has the same surface, and her works have been solid leading into this, she is the choice.
Delaware 3 - $38K Maiden Special
2yo fillies going six furlongs
Given the three criteria for me to play a maiden; trainer must be 12% with first timers, lineage 12% with first timers, and the horse must have had three, twelve seconds per furlong work before debuting, only one fits today and that is 9-Get Serious (6/1) whose dad is Practical Joke, an astounding 32% with first time 2yo fillies. 6-Patty Cakes (5/2) put in an excellent debut at Monmouth on Sept. 4, getting the lead at the stretch before tiring to make 3rd. Her works have been awful leading into this, and it makes you wonder if that race took some punch out her young self. Dialed In fillies only 9% in today’s conditions. I am going to use her underneath and take Group 1 breeze fig Get Serious for the win.
Simply stated, a BreezeFig is a speed-figure that combines the time of the work (speed), stride length, angulation, segmental distances in the body and a unique “thrust” factor for each horse that breezes at a 2-year-old in training sale. A true biomechanical study of a horse in motion it works just like most other speed figures—the higher the number, the faster and classier the horse should be— regardless of breeze time and stride length alone. Based on a three-year analysis of live races at a major track we found that 76% of horses that finished first, second or third had the same characteristics detailed above. With the advent of digital video technology, DataTrack also analyzed breeze show data yielding a “Par” BreezeFig for each sale. Fewer than 10% of the horses in any sale turn out to be stakes caliber. The Pars for each sale are so close that we have developed a “National Par” BreezeFig so that horses with similar BreezeFigs can be compared from year to year. BreezeFigs are calculated separately for colts and fillies, and for each breeze distance (one eighth, a quarter mile, three-eighths, sometimes half a mile) and surface (dirt, synthetic, turf) for each sex.
There are four Groups:
G1: Horses qualifying on all Speed, Stride Length and other proprietary numbers;
G2: Horses qualifying on all but one of the above factors;
G3: Horses that qualify on one of the above factors;
G4: Horses that are non-qualifiers on any of the above factors
Class Edge High
OBSMAR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-March
Class Edge Good
OBSAPR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-April
EASMAY, Fasig-Tipton in Maryland in mid-May
Class Edge Moderate
OBSJUN, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-June